Présidence Trump: Attention, un fascisme peut en cacher un autre (Behind the Left’s constant crying wolf, Trump’s actions are largely an extension of prior temporary policies and a long-overdue return to sanity)

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Les fascistes de demain s’appelleront eux-mêmes antifascistes. Churchill
Normally intercepts of U.S. officials and citizens are some of the most tightly held government secrets. This is for good reason. Selectively disclosing details of private conversations monitored by the FBI or NSA gives the permanent state the power to destroy reputations from the cloak of anonymity. This is what police states do. (…) Flynn was a fat target for the national security state. He has cultivated a reputation as a reformer and a fierce critic of the intelligence community leaders he once served with when he was the director the Defense Intelligence Agency under President Barack Obama. Flynn was working to reform the intelligence-industrial complex, something that threatened the bureaucratic prerogatives of his rivals. He was also a fat target for Democrats. Remember Flynn’s breakout national moment last summer was when he joined the crowd at the Republican National Convention from the dais calling for Hillary Clinton to be jailed. In normal times, the idea that U.S. officials entrusted with our most sensitive secrets would selectively disclose them to undermine the White House would alarm those worried about creeping authoritarianism. Imagine if intercepts of a call between Obama’s incoming national security adviser and Iran’s foreign minister leaked to the press before the nuclear negotiations began? The howls of indignation would be deafening. In the end, it was Trump’s decision to cut Flynn loose. In doing this he caved in to his political and bureaucratic opposition. Nunes told me Monday night that this will not end well. « First it’s Flynn, next it will be Kellyanne Conway, then it will be Steve Bannon, then it will be Reince Priebus, » he said. Put another way, Flynn is only the appetizer. Trump is the entree. Eli Lake
There does appear to be a well orchestrated effort to attack Flynn and others in the administration. From the leaking of phone calls between the president and foreign leaders to what appears to be high-level FISA Court information, to the leaking of American citizens being denied security clearances, it looks like a pattern. Devin Nunes (House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence)
The United States is much better off without Michael Flynn serving as national security adviser. But no one should be cheering the way he was brought down. The whole episode is evidence of the precipitous and ongoing collapse of America’s democratic institutions — not a sign of their resiliency. Flynn’s ouster was a soft coup (or political assassination) engineered by anonymous intelligence community bureaucrats. The results might be salutary, but this isn’t the way a liberal democracy is supposed to function. Unelected intelligence analysts work for the president, not the other way around. Far too many Trump critics appear not to care that these intelligence agents leaked highly sensitive information to the press — mostly because Trump critics are pleased with the result. « Finally, » they say, « someone took a stand to expose collusion between the Russians and a senior aide to the president! » It is indeed important that someone took such a stand. But it matters greatly who that someone is and how they take their stand. Members of the unelected, unaccountable intelligence community are not the right someone, especially when they target a senior aide to the president by leaking anonymously to newspapers the content of classified phone intercepts, where the unverified, unsubstantiated information can inflict politically fatal damage almost instantaneously. President Trump was roundly mocked among liberals for that tweet. But he is, in many ways, correct. These leaks are an enormous problem. And in a less polarized context, they would be recognized immediately for what they clearly are: an effort to manipulate public opinion for the sake of achieving a desired political outcome. It’s weaponized spin. But no matter what Flynn did, it is simply not the role of the deep state to target a man working in one of the political branches of the government by dishing to reporters about information it has gathered clandestinely. It is the role of elected members of Congress to conduct public investigations of alleged wrongdoing by public officials. In a liberal democracy, how things happen is often as important as what happens. Procedures matter. So do rules and public accountability. The chaotic, dysfunctional Trump White House is placing the entire system under enormous strain. That’s bad. But the answer isn’t to counter it with equally irregular acts of sabotage — or with a disinformation campaign waged by nameless civil servants toiling away in the surveillance state. Those cheering the deep state torpedoing of Flynn are saying, in effect, that a police state is perfectly fine so long as it helps to bring down Trump. It is the role of Congress to investigate the president and those who work for him. If Congress resists doing its duty, out of a mixture of self-interest and cowardice, the American people have no choice but to try and hold the government’s feet to the fire, demanding action with phone calls, protests, and, ultimately, votes. That is a democratic response to the failure of democracy. Sitting back and letting shadowy, unaccountable agents of espionage do the job for us simply isn’t an acceptable alternative. Down that path lies the end of democracy in America. Damon Linker
The model of the imperial Obama presidency is the greater fear. Over the last eight years, Obama has transformed the powers of presidency in a way not seen in decades. Obama, as he promised with his pen and phone, bypassed the House and Senate to virtually open the border with Mexico. He largely ceased deportations of undocumented immigrants. He issued executive-order amnesties. And he allowed entire cities to be exempt from federal immigration law. The press said nothing about this extraordinary overreach of presidential power, mainly because these largely illegal means were used to achieve the progressive ends favored by many journalists. The Senate used to ratify treaties. In the past, a president could not unilaterally approve the Treaty of Versailles, enroll the United States in the League of Nations, fight in Vietnam or Iraq without congressional authorization, change existing laws by non-enforcement, or rewrite bankruptcy laws. Not now. Obama set a precedent that he did not need Senate ratification to make a landmark treaty with Iran on nuclear enrichment. He picked and chose which elements of the Affordable Care Act would be enforced — predicated on his 2012 reelection efforts. Rebuffed by Congress, Obama is now slowly shutting down the Guantanamo Bay detention center by insidiously having inmates sent to other countries (…) One reason Americans are scared about the next president is that they should be. In 2017, a President Trump or a President Clinton will be able to do almost anything he or she wishes without much oversight — thanks to the precedent of Obama’s overreach, abetted by a lapdog press that forgot that the ends never justify the means. Victor Davis Hanson
Key to the strategy of change is to remind citizens that the present action is a corrective of past extremism, a move to the center not to the opposite pole, and must be understood as reluctantly reactive, not gratuitously revolutionary. Such forethought is not a sign of timidity or backtracking, but rather the catalyst necessary to make change even more rapid and effective. Take Trump’s immigration stay. In large part, it was an extension of prior temporary policies enacted by both Presidents Bush and Obama. It was also a proper correction of Trump’s own unwise and ill-fated campaign pledge to temporarily ban Muslims rather than take a pause to vet all immigrants from war-torn nations in the Middle East. Who would oppose such a temporary halt? Obviously Democrats, on the principle that the issue might gain political traction so that they could tar Trump as an uncouth racist and xenophobe, and in general as reckless, incompetent, and confused. Obviously, the Left in general sees almost any restriction on immigration as antithetical to its larger project of a borderless society run by elites such as themselves. Obviously Republican establishmentarians fear any media meme suggesting that they are complicit in an illiberal enterprise. Perhaps the Trump plan was, first, to ensure that radical Islamist terrorists and their sympathizers do not enter the U.S., as they so often enter Europe; second, to send a message to the international community that entry into the country is a privilege not an entitlement; and, third, symbolically to reassert the powers of assimilation, integration, and intermarriage as we slow and refine legal immigration. (The U.S. currently has about 40 million foreign-born residents, or a near record 14 percent of the population; one in four Californians was not born in the United States.) (…) Take the wall with Mexico and the campaign promise to make “Mexico pay.” (…) The aim again is to remind the country that the action is a reaction to past excess and extremism. To take another example, if we are going to get into a minor tiff with Australia over its refugee problem, then it might be wise to explain that Australia’s own refugee policies are among the most restrictive in the world, and that, on principle, the United States cannot involve itself in the internal immigration affairs of other nations and therefore must allow Australia free rein to determine its own immigration future. And we carefully would explain the consequences of that decision of non-interference. In truth, Australia, not Trump, was the more culpable. (Immigrants, many from the Middle East, heading toward Australia will undergo vetting that permits them entry into the U.S. but not into Australia — in a deal that was understandably not much publicized by the lame-duck Obama administration?) In terms of strategy, the Trump people surely grasp the rationale of their opponents: to react hysterically to every presidential act, raising the volume and chaos of dissent to such a level that moderate Republicans go into a fetal position and sigh, “Please just make all this go away” — and thus turn their animus upon their own. Trump may think that the Left’s crying wolf constantly will imperil their authenticity and turn their shrieks into mere background noise Or he may wager that the protesters will raise the temperature so high they themselves will melt down before the administration does. Perhaps. But just as likely, the Left is gambling that each outrage is a small nick to the capillaries of the Trump administration — after a few months the total blood loss will match the fatal damage of an aneurysm. The result will then be such a loss of public credibility that the Trump administration will become paralyzed (think Watergate, Iran-Contra, or the furor over Iraq), or so deterred that it will shift course and fall into line. Trump needs to carefully consider the full effect of executive orders and the certain reactions against them to the second and third degree — not because he should cease issuing them (so far the orders have almost all been inspired), but to ensure that they are effective and understood. In this way, they may win rather than lose public support, especially if the relevant cabinet secretaries are on board and out front with the media. In other words, only by taking actions deliberately and with forethought can he bring about not so much change as a long-overdue return to sanity. Victor Davis Hanson
La chancelière allemande Angela Merkel et les Premiers ministres des 16 Landers allemands ont conclu jeudi un accord visant à faciliter les expulsions de réfugiés dont la demande d’asile a été rejetée. Les expulsions sont normalement du ressort des landers, mais Merkel souhaite coordonner un certain nombre de choses au niveau fédéral pour accélérer les procédures. Le gouvernement fédéral veut s’accaparer plus de pouvoirs pour refuser des permis de séjour et effectuer lui-même les expulsions. L’un des objectifs centraux du plan en 16 points est de construire un centre de rapatriement à Potsdam (Berlin) qui comptera un représentant pour chaque lander. En outre, il prévoit la création de centres d’expulsion à proximité des aéroports pour faciliter les expulsions collectives. Un autre objectif est de faciliter l’expulsion des immigrants qui présentent un danger pour la sécurité du pays et de favoriser les «retours volontaires» d’autres migrants par le biais d’incitations financières s’ils acceptent de quitter le pays avant qu’une décision ait été prise au regard de leur demande d’asile. Une somme de 40 millions d’euros est consacrée à ce projet. Selon le ministère allemand de l’Intérieur, 280.000 migrants ont sollicité l’asile en Allemagne en 2016. C’est trois fois moins que les 890.000 de l’année précédente, au plus fort de la crise des réfugiés en Europe. Près de 430 000 demandes d’asile sont encore en cours d’instruction. L’Express
Jamais les Etats-Unis n’ont expulsé autant d’immigrés clandestins. Au point où « The Economist  » n’hésite pas à qualifier Barack Obama de « deporter-in-chief » (le chef des expulseurs). Depuis son arrivée à la Maison-Blanche, quelque 2 millions de clandestins ont été expulsés, soit à un rythme neuf fois plus élevé qu’il y a vingt ans et un record pour un président américain. Et la « machine infernale à expulser  » coûte cher aux Etats-Unis, plus que tout autre budget fédéral destiné à la lutte contre la criminalité. La conséquence de ces expulsions est lourde. Non seulement elles conduisent à des séparations familiales déchirantes, mais elles appauvrissent l’Amérique, affirme l’hebdomadaire. Le nouveau patron de Microsoft, Satya Nadella, né en Inde, est évidemment l’exemple des bienfaits de l’immigration pour l’économie. La moitié en outre des doctorats universitaires sont obtenus par des immigrés, ainsi que quatre cinquièmes des brevets dans le domaine pharmaceutique. Les refus de plus en plus fréquents d’accorder des permis de séjour à des étudiants réduisent les chances de former de nouveaux Nadella. Sans oublier les clandestins non qualifiés qui acceptent des emplois dont les Américains ne veulent pas… et qui paient leurs impôts. Pour Obama, il s’agit d’un paradoxe qui s’explique peut-être par sa volonté de faire porter le chapeau à son opposition républicaine hostile à son projet de réforme visant à légaliser 12 millions d’immigrés illégaux. Mais le président ne devrait pas utiliser une telle stratégie et plutôt s’employer à enrayer la machine infernale des expulsions. Les Echos (10/02/2014)
Washington s’inquiète de voir la violence liée à la guerre contre les narcotrafiquants empiéter sur les États-Unis (…) La guerre contre le narcotrafic menée par le président Felipe Calderon a provoqué une explosion de violence (plus de 7 200 morts officiellement en 2008). Barack Obama s’est dit mardi «préoccupé par le niveau accru de la violence (…) et son impact sur les communautés vivant de part et d’autre de la frontière.» Dans la foulée, la Maison-Blanche a dévoilé une nouvelle stratégie pour endiguer la montée en puissance des gangs mexicains, qui gagnent des milliards de dollars en exportant la drogue vers les États-Unis, où ils se fournissent en armes et en argent liquide. Washington prévoit d’augmenter les effectifs des agents des ministères de la Justice, du Trésor et de la Sécurité intérieure et ­d’installer de nouveaux outils de surveillance aux postes frontières. L’Administration Obama compte aussi s’appuyer sur les 700 millions de dollars d’aide aux forces de sé­curité mexicaines alloués pour 2008 et 2009. Parallèlement, les États-Unis en­visagent de placer des troupes en état d’alerte, probablement des réservistes de la Garde nationale, qui seraient envoyés à la frontière en cas d’urgence. Ils souhaitent aussi imposer un nouvel accord militaire au Mexique. Le Figaro (25/03/2009)
Newly obtained congressional data shows hundreds of terror plots have been stopped in the U.S. since 9/11 – mostly involving foreign-born suspects, including dozens of refugees. The files (…) give fresh insight into the true scope of the terror threat and cover a wide range of cases, including: A Seattle man plotting to attack a U.S. military facility An Atlantic City man using his “Revolution Muslim” site to encourage confrontations with U.S. Jewish leaders “at their home An Iraq refugee arrested in January, accused of traveling to Syria to “take up arms” with terror groups While the June 12 massacre at an Orlando gay nightclub marked the deadliest terror attack on U.S. soil since 2001, the data shows America has been facing a steady stream of plots. For the period September 2001 through 2014, data shows the U.S. successfully prosecuted 580 individuals for terrorism and terror-related cases. Further, since early 2014, at least 131 individuals were identified as being implicated in terror. Across both those groups, the senators reported that at least 40 people initially admitted to the U.S. as refugees later were convicted or implicated in terror cases. Among the 580 convicted, they said, at least 380 were foreign-born. The top countries of origin were Pakistan, Lebanon and Somalia, as well as the Palestinian territories. (…) Specifically, they show a sharp spike in cases in 2015, largely stemming from the arrest of suspects claiming allegiance to the Islamic State. (…) The allegations detailed in the subcommittee’s research pertain to a range of cases, involving suspects caught traveling or trying to travel overseas to fight, as well as suspects ensnared in controversial sting operations which civil-liberties groups including the ACLU have criticized. In a 2014 report, Human Rights Watch said nearly half of the federal counterterror convictions at the time came from “informant-based cases,” many of them sting operations where the informants played a role in the plot. (…) But even in some of those cases, federal agents got involved after learning of a serious suspected plot. In the case of the Seattle suspect, Abu Khalid Abdul-Latif, authorities said he approached someone in 2011 about attacking a military installation. That citizen alerted law enforcement and worked with them to capture Latif and an accomplice. Fox news (June 2016)
A review of information compiled by a Senate committee in 2016 reveals that 72 individuals from the seven countries covered in President Trump’s vetting executive order have been convicted in terror cases since the 9/11 attacks. These facts stand in stark contrast to the assertions by the Ninth Circuit judges who have blocked the president’s order on the basis that there is no evidence showing a risk to the United States in allowing aliens from these seven terror-associated countries to come in. In June 2016 the Senate Subcommittee on Immigration and the National Interest, then chaired by new Attorney General Jeff Sessions, released a report on individuals convicted in terror cases since 9/11. Using open sources (because the Obama administration refused to provide government records), the report found that 380 out of 580 people convicted in terror cases since 9/11 were foreign-born. (…) The Center has extracted information on 72 individuals named in the Senate report whose country of origin is one of the seven terror-associated countries included in the vetting executive order: Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. (…) According to the report, at least 17 individuals entered as refugees from these terror-prone countries. Three came in on student visas and one arrived on a diplomatic visa. At least 25 of these immigrants eventually became citizens. Ten were lawful permanent residents, and four were illegal aliens. These immigrant terrorists lived in at least 16 different states, with the largest number from the terror-associated countries living in New York (10), Minnesota (8), California (8), and Michigan (6). Ironically, Minnesota was one of the states suing to block Trump’s order to pause entries from the terror-associated countries, claiming it harmed the state. At least two of the terrorists were living in Washington, which joined with Minnesota in the lawsuit to block the order. Thirty-three of the 72 individuals from the seven terror-associated countries were convicted of very serious terror-related crimes, and were sentenced to at least three years imprisonment. The crimes included use of a weapon of mass destruction, conspiracy to commit a terror act, material support of a terrorist or terror group, international money laundering conspiracy, possession of explosives or missiles, and unlawful possession of a machine gun. Some opponents of the travel suspension have tried to claim that the Senate report was flawed because it included individuals who were not necessarily terrorists because they were convicted of crimes such as identity fraud and false statements. About a dozen individuals in the group from the seven terror-associated countries are in this category. Some are individuals who were arrested and convicted in the months following 9/11 for involvement in a fraudulent hazardous materials and commercial driver’s license scheme that was extremely worrisome to law enforcement and counter-terrorism agencies, although a direct link to the 9/11 plot was never claimed. The information in this report was compiled by Senate staff from open sources, and certainly could have been found by the judges if they or their clerks had looked for it. Another example that should have come to mind is that of Abdul Razak Ali Artan, who attacked and wounded 11 people on the campus of Ohio State University in November 2016. Artan was a Somalian who arrived in 2007 as a refugee. Center for immigration studies

Attention: un fascisme peut en cacher un autre !

Gouvernement par décrets, ouverture virtuellement complète des vannes de l’immigration mexicaine, amnisties par fait du prince, villes-refuges quasiment soustraites à la loi fédérale, court-circuitage du Congrès accordant l’accès à l’arme nucléaire à un pays appelant à l’annihilation d’un de ses voisins, explosion complètement inouïe du budget fédéral, loi calamiteuse sur la sécurité sociale, élargissement non maitrisé et caché de terroristes notoires, record largement secret d’exécutions parajudiciaires, dénonciation systématique du prétendu racisme policier privant de fait les plus démunis de leur droit à la sécurité la plus élémentaire  …

A l’heure où, quand ce n’est pas l’ancien président lui-même, nos beaux esprits et nos belles âmes des médias et du monde du spectacle (ou même apparemment de la fonction publique ou des services secrets ?)

Multiplient, entre révélations d’écoutes secrètes ou analyses de poignées de mains, les fuites, obstructions et  dénigrements pour saboter les premières semaines, certes quelque peu cahotiques, de l’Administration Trump …

(Contrairement à ce que nos médias paresseux et partiaux nous rabâchent, ce n’est pas pour « contacts inappropriés » avec l’ambassadeur russe mais pour mensonge à ses chefs – du moins officiellement – que Flynn démissionne et que – vendetta personnelle ? – le FBI n’a pas hésité à confirmer, pour ceux qui ne le savaient pas encore, la mise sur écoute systématique de tous les contacts des citoyens américains avec l’étranger, hauts fonctionnaires et ambassadeurs compris) …

Pendant que se confirme l’origine majoritairement musulmane des auteurs d’attentats sur le sol américain depuis ou avant le 11 septembre …

Et qu’alors que la fameuse générosité européenne semble se heurter elle aussi au dur mur de la réalité de ce côté-ci de l’Atlantique, se poursuit l’hallali contre la seule véritable alternance aux cinq années de gâchis socialiste …

Comment ne pas voir …

En creux pour ceux qui ont encore un peu de mémoire …

Et au-delà de l’évident correctif face à la véritable radicalité d’une administration ayant battu tous les records, si l’on ajoute les « memorandums », de décrets présidentiels …

L’incroyable indulgence complice qui avait suivi l’élection de Barack Obama il y a huit ans …

Mais aussi la non moins incroyable amnésie …

Pour une administration qui non seulement appliqua plusieurs moratoires sur l’immigration de certains pays musulmans  …

Mais poursuivit, au moins jusqu’en 2010 et sur fond d’intensification du trafic de drogue, la construction d’un des pas moins de douze murs que compte la planète

Et, entre deux promesses d’amnistie, battit en son temps le record toutes catégories d’expulsions de clandestins ?

Entre les États-Unis et le Mexique, un mur très politique
Philippe Gélie

Le Figaro

02/10/2006

LES ÉTATS-UNIS vont ériger une barrière de 1 120 kilomètres de long sur leur frontière avec le Mexique. La loi adoptée en ce sens par le Sénat vendredi soir, juste avant la fin de la session parlementaire, ignore la volonté du président d’introduire une réforme globale de l’immigration, dans laquelle le volet répressif aurait été complété par un programme d’accueil des travailleurs étrangers. Mais, à cinq semaines des élections de mi-mandat, George W. Bush a annoncé son intention de ratifier la loi telle qu’elle est, plutôt que d’offrir un spectacle de division dans son propre parti.

Le texte prévoit l’érection d’au moins deux rangées de palissades et de grillages sur un peu plus de la moitié des 3 200 kilomètres de frontière entre les États-Unis et le Mexique, principal point d’entrée des immigrants clandestins. Il donne 18 mois au département de la Sécurité du territoire pour prendre «le contrôle opérationnel» de la frontière, notion définie par l’arrêt de «tous» les passages illégaux. En moyenne, 1,2 million de clandestins sont arrêtés chaque année du côté américain, un chiffre constant depuis dix ans malgré le renforcement incessant des contrôles.

Des obstacles juridiques

Cent vingt kilomètres de palissades existent déjà, le nombre de gardes-frontière a été triplé et 6 000 soldats de la Garde nationale ont été déployés en renfort l’été dernier. Le seul résultat visible jusqu’ici a été de repousser les candidats à l’immigration toujours plus loin dans des zones désertiques, faisant passer le nombre de morts d’une douzaine à 400 par an. Selon les autorités d’Arizona, la fortification de la frontière a donné le jour à une nouvelle criminalité organisée, plus sophistiquée que les passeurs d’autrefois. À raison de 1 600 dollars par immigrant, son chiffre d’affaires atteindrait 2,5 milliards de dollars par an.

La réponse du Congrès a été de budgéter 1,2 milliard de dollars pour lancer un projet qui devrait en coûter au total 7 milliards d’ici à son achèvement fin 2008. Il prévoit la multiplication des drones, des radars, des caméras de surveillance et des plaques sensibles enfouies dans le sol. Les zones concernées par ce «mur» de haute technologie s’étendent sur une partie de la Californie, la quasi-totalité de la frontière sud de l’Arizona et du Nouveau-Mexique, ainsi que deux tronçons le long du Rio Grande au Texas. Le terrain, extrêmement difficile par endroits, jette le doute sur la faisabilité de l’opération : il faudra gravir des sommets escarpés, plonger au fond de canyons ou traverser des rivières rapides.

Des obstacles juridiques sont également prévisibles, la barrière étant censée traverser plusieurs réserves indiennes dont les tribus sont opposées à sa construction. Des associations de protection de la nature prévoient d’introduire des recours en justice au nom du respect de la vie sauvage. Même les ranchers du Texas s’inquiètent de l’impact sur leur main-d’oeuvre de travailleurs frontaliers. «Ce n’est pas réalisable, estime le sénateur de l’Arizona Jim Kolbe, c’est juste une déclaration politique avant les élections.»

Voir aussi:

Barack Obama veut sécuriser la frontière avec le Mexique

Lamia Oualalou, à Rio de Janeiro
Le Figaro

25/03/2009

Washington s’inquiète de voir la violence liée à la guerre contre les narcotrafiquants empiéter sur les États-Unis, alors que Hillary Clinton est attendue mercredi à Mexico.

La secrétaire d’État Hillary Clinton doit s’attendre à un accueil plutôt froid en arrivant au Mexique mercredi. Sa visite, la première d’une série de visites de hauts fonctionnaires avant le voyage du président Barack Obama, prévu à la mi-avril, a pour objectif de panser les plaies alors que les relations entre les deux pays, qui partagent une frontière de 3 000 kilomètres, traversent une phase délicate.

La guerre contre le narcotrafic menée par le président Felipe Calderon a provoqué une explosion de violence (plus de 7 200 morts officiellement en 2008). Barack Obama s’est dit mardi «préoccupé par le niveau accru de la violence (…) et son impact sur les communautés vivant de part et d’autre de la frontière.» Dans la foulée, la Maison-Blanche a dévoilé une nouvelle stratégie pour endiguer la montée en puissance des gangs mexicains, qui gagnent des milliards de dollars en exportant la drogue vers les États-Unis, où ils se fournissent en armes et en argent liquide.

Washington prévoit d’augmenter les effectifs des agents des ministères de la Justice, du Trésor et de la Sécurité intérieure et ­d’installer de nouveaux outils de surveillance aux postes frontières. L’Administration Obama compte aussi s’appuyer sur les 700 millions de dollars d’aide aux forces de sé­curité mexicaines alloués pour 2008 et 2009.

Parallèlement, les États-Unis en­visagent de placer des troupes en état d’alerte, probablement des réservistes de la Garde nationale, qui seraient envoyés à la frontière en cas d’urgence. Ils souhaitent aussi imposer un nouvel accord militaire au Mexique. «La question de la sécurité a pris une place excessive et exclusive, il faut que les États-Unis se recentrent sur la relation commerciale, qui est fondamentale», dit Laura Carlsen, directrice des Amérique au Centre de politique internationale – CIP, basé à Washington.

Représailles commerciales
La semaine dernière, le gouvernement de Felipe Calderon a établi une liste de 90 produits américains qui seront surtaxés à l’entrée du territoire mexicain. Une décision prise en représailles à une mesure du Congrès américain mettant fin à la circulation de camions mexicains au-delà du Rio Grande, comme le prévoyait l’accord de libre-échange nord-américain (Alena), qui unit les États-Unis, le Canada et le Mexique. Le Congrès estime que les véhicules mexicains ne répondent pas aux normes de sécurité américaines. «C’est une mesure protectionniste, dictée par le puissant syndicat de camionneurs Teamsters», tranche Leo Zuckermann, analyste au Cide, un centre d’études politiques et économiques à Mexico.

«En ces moments de crise économique, alors qu’il faut éviter le protectionnisme, les États-Unis envoient un signal négatif au Mexique et au reste du monde», estime le ministre de l’Économie Gerardo Ruiz Mateos. La liste des produits frappés de surtaxe – fruits, légumes, shampoings – exclut les denrées de première nécessité afin de ne pas pénaliser le consommateur. Mexico a également tenu à ce qu’ils proviennent de 40 États américains. «Le but est de montrer à la Maison-Blanche que la relation commerciale pèse dans les deux sens, et qu’elle est fondamentale pour certains États», explique Laura Carlsen.

Pour Barack Obama, la crise avec le Mexique vire au casse-tête. «Il a promis pendant sa campagne de renégocier l’Alena à l’avantage des travailleurs américains, une proposition rejetée par Mexico, rappelle Tomas Ayuso, chercheur au Coha (Conseil sur les affaires hémisphériques) de Washington. Mais il est dangereux de froisser le Mexique, qui est son troisième partenaire commercial.»

Obama semble l’avoir compris. Il a changé de discours, substituant aux critiques des éloges sur «l’ex­tra­ordinaire travail» de Felipe Calderon.

Voir également:

Le mur États-Unis-Mexique en 15 images

Le reportage de Christian Latreille

Radio Canada

7 juin 2016

L’immigration est un sujet controversé de la campagne présidentielle américaine. Le candidat républicain Donald Trump promet notamment de bâtir un mur plus haut et plus long entre les États-Unis et le Mexique. Nous sommes allés voir ce fameux mur.

Le mur entre les deux pays se construit par étapes. Le fondateur de l’association des Anges de la frontière, Enrique Morones, montre deux générations de murs. La première atteint trois mètres et a été fabriquée sous Bill Clinton avec de la tôle recyclée de la guerre du Vietnam. La deuxième, d’environ cinq mètres de hauteur, a été construite sous George W. Bush.

Derrière Enrique Morones, une brèche dans le mur. En fait, le mur n’est pas uniforme et ne s’étend que sur 1120 km des 3200 km de la frontière entre les États-Unis et le Mexique. Plus souvent une montagne, une rivière ou un désert séparent les deux pays.

Après le mur, le désert. Les bénévoles des Anges de la frontière, un groupe né en 1986, déposent des bouteilles d’eau pour aider ceux qui doivent survivre dans le désert aride après avoir franchi le mur.

Les clandestins attachent des morceaux d’étoffe sous leurs souliers pour éviter de laisser des traces de pas facilement détectables par les gardes-frontières.

La zone de San Diego-Tijuana comprend un des systèmes de sécurité les plus sophistiqués le long de la frontière entre les États-Unis et le Mexique.

Mur, clôture, caméras, détecteurs et barbelés. Il y a aussi les patrouilleurs qui surveillent continuellement le mur. Malgré tout cet arsenal, de nombreux immigrants réussissent à passer illégalement chaque semaine.

Les clandestins parviennent à percer le mur avec des scies mécaniques. Selon les gardes-frontières, seulement 30 % des clandestins qui tentent d’entrer illégalement au pays se font prendre. « On fait du mieux qu’on peut, avec ce qu’on nous donne », dira l’un d’eux.

Le syndicat des gardes-frontières a appuyé le candidat Donald Trump. Le vice-président, Terence Shigg, apporte des nuances à la position de Trump sur l’immigration. Le candidat républicain propose notamment de déporter les quelque 11 millions de sans-papiers qui se trouvent aux États-Unis. Selon Terence Shigg, la déportation massive n’est pas la solution; il faut plus de gens pour traiter les demandes d’asile, plus de juges en immigration, plus de centres de détention.

Christopher Harris, du syndicat des gardes-frontières, se tient du côté américain de la frontière. À quelques pas de là, il a tué un clandestin; un douloureux souvenir qui le hante encore. Il aime citer une ancienne patronne : « Montrez-moi un mur de 15 pieds, et je vous montrerai une échelle de 16 pieds ».

On estime à près de 11 000 le nombre de personnes mortes depuis 1994 en tentant d’entrer illégalement aux États-Unis. Plusieurs centaines d’entre elles sont enterrées ici, dans ce cimetière de fortune.

Les corps de nombreuses personnes n’ont pas été réclamés. Elles restent donc anonymes. Des « John Doe », comme l’indique l’inscription sur la pierre. C’est pour éviter que les victimes ne tombent dans l’oubli que les Anges de la frontière entretiennent régulièrement le cimetière.

Jeune enfant, Walfred a été abandonné au Guatemala par sa mère, qui a tenté sa chance aux États-Unis. Après quatre ans d’attente, il a réussi à franchir la frontière illégalement pour la rejoindre. Pour le moment, il est protégé par un décret présidentiel signé par Barack Obama en 2012.

Walfred et sa mère connaissent des jours plus heureux. Elle gère une petite entreprise d’entretien ménager, tout en vivant dans la clandestinité. Un sacrifice qu’elle accepte volontiers pour être avec son seul enfant.

Voir encore:

The Obama Administration Stopped Processing Iraq Refugee Requests For 6 Months In 2011

Although the Obama administration currently refuses to temporarily pause its Syrian refugee resettlement program in the United States, the State Department in 2011 stopped processing Iraq refugee requests for six months after the Federal Bureau of Investigation uncovered evidence that several dozen terrorists from Iraq had infiltrated the United States via the refugee program.

After two terrorists were discovered in Bowling Green, Kentucky, in 2009, the FBI began reviewing reams of evidence taken from improvised explosive devices (IEDs) that had been used against American troops in Iraq. Federal investigators then tried to match fingerprints from those bombs to the fingerprints of individuals who had recently entered the United States as refugees:

An intelligence tip initially led the FBI to Waad Ramadan Alwan, 32, in 2009. The Iraqi had claimed to be a refugee who faced persecution back home — a story that shattered when the FBI found his fingerprints on a cordless phone base that U.S. soldiers dug up in a gravel pile south of Bayji, Iraq on Sept. 1, 2005. The phone base had been wired to unexploded bombs buried in a nearby road.

An ABC News investigation of the flawed U.S. refugee screening system, which was overhauled two years ago, showed that Alwan was mistakenly allowed into the U.S. and resettled in the leafy southern town of Bowling Green, Kentucky, a city of 60,000 which is home to Western Kentucky University and near the Army’s Fort Knox and Fort Campbell. Alwan and another Iraqi refugee, Mohanad Shareef Hammadi, 26, were resettled in Bowling Green even though both had been detained during the war by Iraqi authorities, according to federal prosecutors.

The terrorists were not taken into custody until 2011. Shortly thereafter, the U.S. State Department stopped processing refugee requests from Iraqis for six months in order to review and revamp security screening procedures:

As a result of the Kentucky case, the State Department stopped processing Iraq refugees for six months in 2011, federal officials told ABC News – even for many who had heroically helped U.S. forces as interpreters and intelligence assets. One Iraqi who had aided American troops was assassinated before his refugee application could be processed, because of the immigration delays, two U.S. officials said. In 2011, fewer than 10,000 Iraqis were resettled as refugees in the U.S., half the number from the year before, State Department statistics show.

According to a 2013 report from ABC News, at least one of the Kentucky terrorists passed background and fingerprint checks conducted by the Department of Homeland Security prior to being allowed to enter the United States. Without the fingerprint evidence taken from roadside bombs, which one federal forensic scientist referred to as “a needle in the haystack,” it is unlikely that the two terrorists would ever have been identified and apprehended.

“How did a person who we detained in Iraq — linked to an IED attack, we had his fingerprints in our government system — how did he walk into America in 2009?” asked one former Army general who previously oversaw the U.S. military’s anti-IED efforts.

President Barack Obama has thus far refused bipartisan calls to pause his administration’s Syrian refugee program, which many believe is likely to be exploited by terrorists seeking entry into the United States. The president has not explained how his administration can guarantee that no terrorists will be able to slip into the country by pretending to be refugees, as the Iraqi terrorists captured in Kentucky did in 2009. One of those terrorists, Waad Ramadan Alwan, even came into the United States by way of Syria, where his fingerprints were taken and given to U.S. military intelligence officials.

Obama has also refused to explain how his administration’s security-related pause on processing Iraq refugee requests in 2011 did not “betray our deepest values.”

Voir de même:

Study Reveals 72 Terrorists Came From Countries Covered by Trump Vetting Order

Jessica Vaughan
Center for immigration studies
February 11, 2017

A review of information compiled by a Senate committee in 2016 reveals that 72 individuals from the seven countries covered in President Trump’s vetting executive order have been convicted in terror cases since the 9/11 attacks. These facts stand in stark contrast to the assertions by the Ninth Circuit judges who have blocked the president’s order on the basis that there is no evidence showing a risk to the United States in allowing aliens from these seven terror-associated countries to come in.

In June 2016 the Senate Subcommittee on Immigration and the National Interest, then chaired by new Attorney General Jeff Sessions, released a report on individuals convicted in terror cases since 9/11. Using open sources (because the Obama administration refused to provide government records), the report found that 380 out of 580 people convicted in terror cases since 9/11 were foreign-born. The report is no longer available on the Senate website, but a summary published by Fox News is available here.

The Center has obtained a copy of the information compiled by the subcommittee. The information compiled includes names of offenders, dates of conviction, terror group affiliation, federal criminal charges, sentence imposed, state of residence, and immigration history.

The Center has extracted information on 72 individuals named in the Senate report whose country of origin is one of the seven terror-associated countries included in the vetting executive order: Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. The Senate researchers were not able to obtain complete information on each convicted terrorist, so it is possible that more of the convicted terrorists are from these countries.

The United States has admitted terrorists from all of the seven dangerous countries:

  • Somalia: 20
  • Yemen: 19
  • Iraq: 19
  • Syria: 7
  • Iran: 4
  • Libya: 2
  • Sudan: 1
  • Total: 72

According to the report, at least 17 individuals entered as refugees from these terror-prone countries. Three came in on student visas and one arrived on a diplomatic visa.

At least 25 of these immigrants eventually became citizens. Ten were lawful permanent residents, and four were illegal aliens.

These immigrant terrorists lived in at least 16 different states, with the largest number from the terror-associated countries living in New York (10), Minnesota (8), California (8), and Michigan (6). Ironically, Minnesota was one of the states suing to block Trump’s order to pause entries from the terror-associated countries, claiming it harmed the state. At least two of the terrorists were living in Washington, which joined with Minnesota in the lawsuit to block the order.

Thirty-three of the 72 individuals from the seven terror-associated countries were convicted of very serious terror-related crimes, and were sentenced to at least three years imprisonment. The crimes included use of a weapon of mass destruction, conspiracy to commit a terror act, material support of a terrorist or terror group, international money laundering conspiracy, possession of explosives or missiles, and unlawful possession of a machine gun.

Some opponents of the travel suspension have tried to claim that the Senate report was flawed because it included individuals who were not necessarily terrorists because they were convicted of crimes such as identity fraud and false statements. About a dozen individuals in the group from the seven terror-associated countries are in this category. Some are individuals who were arrested and convicted in the months following 9/11 for involvement in a fraudulent hazardous materials and commercial driver’s license scheme that was extremely worrisome to law enforcement and counter-terrorism agencies, although a direct link to the 9/11 plot was never claimed.

The information in this report was compiled by Senate staff from open sources, and certainly could have been found by the judges if they or their clerks had looked for it. Another example that should have come to mind is that of Abdul Razak Ali Artan, who attacked and wounded 11 people on the campus of Ohio State University in November 2016. Artan was a Somalian who arrived in 2007 as a refugee.

President Trump’s vetting order is clearly legal under the provisions of section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, which says that the president can suspend the entry of any alien or group of aliens if he finds it to be detrimental to the national interest. He should not have to provide any more justification than was already presented in the order, but if judges demand more reasons, here are 72.

Voir aussi:

Homeland Security

Anatomy of the terror threat: Files show hundreds of US plots, refugee connection

Now PlayingWhy are Democrat women so rattled by Trump?

Newly obtained congressional data shows hundreds of terror plots have been stopped in the U.S. since 9/11 – mostly involving foreign-born suspects, including dozens of refugees.

The files are sure to inflame the debate over the Obama administration’s push to admit thousands more refugees from Syria and elsewhere, a proposal Donald Trump has vehemently opposed on the 2016 campaign trail.

“[T]hese data make clear that the United States not only lacks the ability to properly screen individuals prior to their arrival, but also that our nation has an unprecedented assimilation problem,” Sens. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., and Ted Cruz, R-Texas, told President Obama in a June 14 letter, obtained by FoxNews.com.

The files also give fresh insight into the true scope of the terror threat and cover a wide range of cases, including:

  • A Seattle man plotting to attack a U.S. military facility
  • An Atlantic City man using his “Revolution Muslim” site to encourage confrontations with U.S. Jewish leaders “at their homes”
  • An Iraq refugee arrested in January, accused of traveling to Syria to “take up arms” with terror groups

While the June 12 massacre at an Orlando gay nightclub marked the deadliest terror attack on U.S. soil since 2001, the data shows America has been facing a steady stream of plots. For the period September 2001 through 2014, data shows the U.S. successfully prosecuted 580 individuals for terrorism and terror-related cases. Further, since early 2014, at least 131 individuals were identified as being implicated in terror.

Across both those groups, the senators reported that at least 40 people initially admitted to the U.S. as refugees later were convicted or implicated in terror cases.

Among the 580 convicted, they said, at least 380 were foreign-born. The top countries of origin were Pakistan, Lebanon and Somalia, as well as the Palestinian territories.

Both Sessions and Cruz sit on the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration and the National Interest, which compiled the terror-case information based on data from the Justice Department, news reports and other open-source information. The files were shared with FoxNews.com.

The files include dates, states of residence, countries of origin for foreign-born suspects, and reams of other details.

Specifically, they show a sharp spike in cases in 2015, largely stemming from the arrest of suspects claiming allegiance to the Islamic State. They also show a heavy concentration of cases involving suspects from California, Texas, New York and Minnesota, among other states.

The senators say the terror-case repository still is missing critical details on suspects’ immigration history, which they say the Department of Homeland Security has “failed to provide.” Immigration data the senators compiled came from other sources.

Sessions and Cruz asked the president in their letter to order the departments of Justice, Homeland Security and State to « update » and provide more detailed information. The senators have sent several letters to those departments since last year requesting immigration histories of those tied to terror.

“The administration refuses to give out the information necessary to establish a sound policy that protects Americans from terrorists,” Sessions said in a statement to Fox News.

Asked about the complaints, DHS spokeswoman Gillian M. Christensen told FoxNews.com the department “will respond to the senators’ request directly and not through the press.”

“More than 100 Congressional committees, subcommittees, caucuses, commissions and groups exercise oversight and ensure accountability of DHS and we work closely with them on a daily basis. We’ve received unprecedented requests from a number of senators and representatives for physical paper files for more than 700 aliens,” she said, adding that officials have to review each page manually for privacy and other issues.

Cruz ran unsuccessfully this year for the Republican presidential nomination. Sessions, an ardent critic of the administration’s immigration policies, is supporting presumptive GOP nominee Trump.

The allegations detailed in the subcommittee’s research pertain to a range of cases, involving suspects caught traveling or trying to travel overseas to fight, as well as suspects ensnared in controversial sting operations which civil-liberties groups including the ACLU have criticized.

In a 2014 report, Human Rights Watch said nearly half of the federal counterterror convictions at the time came from “informant-based cases,” many of them sting operations where the informants played a role in the plot.

The report said: “In some cases the Federal Bureau of Investigation may have created terrorists out of law-abiding individuals by conducting sting operations that facilitated or invented the target’s willingness to act.”

But even in some of those cases, federal agents got involved after learning of a serious suspected plot. In the case of the Seattle suspect, Abu Khalid Abdul-Latif, authorities said he approached someone in 2011 about attacking a military installation. That citizen alerted law enforcement and worked with them to capture Latif and an accomplice.

FoxNews.com’s Liz Torrey contributed to this report. 

Voir par ailleurs:

La guerre des cartels mexicains franchit la frontière des Etats-Unis

Déjà, l’Arizona subit une hausse alarmante de la criminalité. Selon différentes sources, l’Etat frontalier serait devenu la principale plaque tournante nord-américaine de l’immigration illégale et du narcotrafic. Ailleurs, sur l’ensemble du territoire, les cartels mexicains contrôleraient la plupart du marché, d’après un rapport du Centre national de renseignement des drogues. Liés aux gangs américains, ils seraient parvenus à s’implanter dans 230 villes des Etats-Unis.

Nicolas Bourcier

EL PASO (TEXAS) ENVOYÉ SPÉCIAL

Le Monde

24.03.2009

« N ‘y allez pas. » D’emblée, l’injonction de Ramon Bracamontes prend des allures de mise en garde. Les mots, le ton de ce journaliste texan d’El Paso, enquêteur reconnu, calme et d’habitude souriant, en disent long sur le degré d’inquiétude qui prévaut de ce côté-ci de la frontière.

Evoquer le Mexique et la ville d’en face, Ciudad Juarez, située juste de l’autre côté du Rio Grande et de son « rideau de fer », c’est prendre le risque de subir une logorrhée interminable de crimes et d’horreurs liés à la guerre des narcotrafiquants et leurs sicaires. « Moi-même, j’ai peur, insiste-t-il. Les autorités américaines au Mexique m’ont affirmé qu’elles ne pouvaient plus assurer la protection des ressortissants des Etats-Unis. Et de ce côté-ci, nous assistons, chaque jour un peu plus, au débordement de cette violence. »

C’est dire l’importance de la première visite, prévue les mercredi 25 et jeudi 26 mars, de la secrétaire d’Etat Hillary Clinton au Mexique. Sa venue a été placée sous le signe de la lutte contre la drogue. Plus de 800 policiers et militaires y ont été tués depuis décembre 2006. Quelque 6 000 assassinats y ont été recensés l’année dernière (le double de 2007). Avant Noël, les autorités ont découvert dans la petite ville de Chilpancingo, enveloppées dans des sacs en plastique, huit têtes décapitées de soldats puis trois autres dans une glacière à Ciudad Juarez en janvier. Quelques jours plus tard, c’était au tour du responsable de la police locale de démissionner sous la pression des cartels de la drogue. Le maire de la ville frontière, lui, a fini par s’installer avec sa famille en face, à El Paso.

Déjà, en décembre 2006, lors de son élection, le président mexicain, Felipe Calderon, avait admis que « le crime organisé était devenu hors de contrôle ». Depuis, le chef de l’Etat, conservateur et partisan d’une stratégie musclée contre le crime organisé, a déployé sur le territoire 45 000 soldats contre les gangs des narcotrafiquants, dont près de 5 000, cagoulés de noir et lourdement armés, pour la seule ville de Ciudad Juarez.

Les arrestations se sont multipliées – souvent de façon arbitraire, d’après les organisations de défense des droits de l’homme. Les règlements de compte dans les prisons ont atteint de nouveaux sommets. Tout comme les attaques contre des domiciles, les extorsions, les saisies de cocaïne, les prises d’otages et les meurtres avec plus de 1 100 homicides pour les seules huit premières semaines de l’année.

Les autorités mexicaines assurent que le pouvoir central est en train de gagner. A les en croire, l’explosion de violence serait paradoxalement le fruit des efforts de l’Etat pour désorganiser le trafic de drogue. En novembre 2008, Noe Ramirez, le procureur en charge de l’unité spécialisée dans le crime organisé, n’a-t-il pas été inculpé pour avoir fourni des informations au cartel de Sinaloa contre un demi-million de dollars par mois ? Et Francisco Velasco Delgado, le chef de la police de Cancun, arrêté pour avoir protégé le cartel dit du Golfe, commanditaire présumé de l’assassinat en janvier d’un général ?

Pour Washington, l’effort reste insuffisant. Rendu public il y a quelques semaines, un document du Pentagone concluait que deux grands pays pouvaient connaître un effondrement rapide de l’Etat : le Pakistan et, précisément, le voisin mexicain. Un avis rejeté fermement par Mexico, mais alimenté depuis par de nombreuses voix. Barry McCaffrey, général à la retraite et « M. Drogue » de Bill Clinton, affirme que les Etats-Unis ne peuvent pas se permettre d’avoir « un narco-Etat à leur porte« , ajoutant que « les dangers et les problèmes croissants du Mexique menacent la sécurité nationale de notre pays ».

Déjà, l’Arizona subit une hausse alarmante de la criminalité. Selon différentes sources, l’Etat frontalier serait devenu la principale plaque tournante nord-américaine de l’immigration illégale et du narcotrafic. Ailleurs, sur l’ensemble du territoire, les cartels mexicains contrôleraient la plupart du marché, d’après un rapport du Centre national de renseignement des drogues. Liés aux gangs américains, ils seraient parvenus à s’implanter dans 230 villes des Etats-Unis.

C’est dans ce contexte que le général Victor Renuart, le chef du commandement de la zone Amérique du Nord, a expliqué, lors d’une audition au Sénat, le 17 mars, que Washington envisageait d’envoyer plus de troupes ou d’agents spécialisés à la frontière. Selon lui, toutes les composantes des forces de l’ordre et de l’armée seront probablement concernées dans ce combat sans pour autant donner une estimation chiffrée des besoins.

Deux semaines auparavant, Rick Perry, le gouverneur républicain du Texas, avait exigé l’envoi de 1 000 hommes supplémentaires. « Je me fiche de savoir s’il s’agit de militaires, de gardes nationaux ou d’agents des douanes, a-t-il lâché. Nous sommes très préoccupés par le fait que le gouvernement fédéral ne s’occupe pas de la sécurité à la frontière de façon adéquate. »

Une équipe formée de représentants de plusieurs agences gouvernementales s’est réunie la semaine dernière afin d’épauler Mexico. Une initiative qui fait suite au déjeuner, le 12 janvier à Washington, entre Barack Obama et le président mexicain. D’après l’hebdomadaire The Economist, citant des sources mexicaines, M. Calderon aurait proposé un « partenariat stratégique » et la mise en place rapide d’un groupe binational d’experts afin d’améliorer la coopération entre les deux pays.

Devant l’éventualité d’une nouvelle militarisation de la frontière, le président mexicain a exhorté, il y a quelques jours, Washington à surveiller, de son côté, plus étroitement ses importations d’armes et leur vente aux particuliers. Il a demandé des contrôles plus stricts à la frontière d’où les cartels reçoivent leur arsenal et des millions de dollars en espèces en provenance des Etats-Unis.

Après Hillary Clinton, le président américain effectuera à son tour une visite officielle, les 16 et 17 avril, au Mexique. La première en Amérique latine depuis son accession à la Maison Blanche.

Nicolas Bourcier – EL PASO (TEXAS) ENVOYÉ SPÉCIAL

En savoir plus sur http://www.lemonde.fr/ameriques/article/2009/03/24/la-guerre-des-cartels-mexicains-franchit-la-frontiere-des-etats-unis_1171893_3222.html#Z3v6zkJA11su7rMg.99

Ce que peut (encore) faire Barack Obama avant la fin de son mandat

Le président sortant a jusqu’au 20 janvier 2017, date de l’investiture de Donald Trump, pour prendre ses dernières mesures.

Lucas Wicky

Le Monde

28.12.2016

Barack Obama entre dans la dernière ligne droite de son mandat présidentiel. Le 20 janvier 2017, Donald Trump, dont l’élection a été confirmée le 19 décembre par le vote des grands électeurs, prêtera serment et s’installera à la Maison Blanche. Le président sortant se trouve ainsi placé dans la position inconfortable du « lame duck » (canard boiteux), selon l’expression consacrée outre-Atlantique : celle d’un élu dont le mandat arrive à terme et qui est toujours en poste, alors que son successeur est déjà élu mais n’occupe pas encore le poste.

Pour autant, M. Obama ne semble pas disposé à faire « profil bas » durant cette période de transition officielle, qui limite, théoriquement, ses marges de manœuvre. Pour preuve, le 20 décembre, il a décrété l’interdiction des forages gaziers et pétroliers dans de vastes zones de l’Arctique et de l’Atlantique. Les observateurs y ont vu une sorte de coup de force avant l’arrivée de M. Trump, tant cette disposition s’inscrit à rebours des orientations de ce dernier, qui, au contraire, a promis de déréguler l’extraction pétrolière pendant son mandat.

Barack Obama va-t-il profiter des prochaines semaines pour faire passer d’autres mesures avant de quitter la fonction présidentielle ? En a-t-il les moyens ? Voici un tour d’horizon des leviers dont il dispose encore, ou pas, et de la pérennité des mesures qu’il pourrait prendre.

Peut-il faire voter de nouvelles réformes ?

Non

En tout cas, pas en passant par le Congrès (pouvoir législatif). Depuis deux ans, M. Obama n’y dispose pas d’une majorité. C’est pourquoi toutes les réformes d’ampleur du président sortant ont été bloquées. Les élections de mi-mandat avaient en effet permis aux républicains d’obtenir la majorité au Sénat, tandis qu’ils contrôlaient la Chambre des représentants depuis 2010. Les démocrates n’ont pas réussi à renverser ce rapport de force lors des dernières élections, en novembre.

Peut-il « contourner » les parlementaires ?

Oui, dans certains cas

Des leviers ont notamment permis à M. Obama d’agir sur la question des armes, de promouvoir la diversité au sein de la Sécurité nationale ou de protéger une partie de la mer de Bering. Il s’agit des executive actions, en l’occurence des décrets présidentiels (executive orders) ou des mémorandums, qui viennent préciser la manière dont une loi existante doit s’appliquer (les décrets doivent nécessairement mentionner la loi concernée, à la différence des mémorandums).

Le président dispose d’un troisième outil afin de se passer de la validation du Sénat : les accords exécutifs. M. Obama y a eu recours en politique étrangère. Par exemple pour « signer l’accord de Paris sur le changement climatique et conclure l’accord controversé sur le programme nucléaire iranien », note John Copeland Nagle, professeur de droit à l’université Notre Dame law school.

M. Obama a toutefois eu moins recours aux décrets présidentiels que ses prédécesseurs républicains, Ronald Reagan et George W. Bush, mais à plus de mémorandums, selon USA Today.

Les décisions prises à travers des « actes exécutifs » sont-elles irréversibles ?

Non

L’utilisation de ces executive actions n’est pas explicitement prévue par la Constitution des Etats-Unis. Leur utilisation a plusieurs fois été jugée abusive ou « anticonstitutionnelle » par les républicains. En réalité, il revient aux tribunaux fédéraux (s’ils sont saisis par un plaignant) ou à la Cour suprême (en cas d’appel) de juger si ces actes exécutifs respectent ou non la Constitution.

Quoi qu’il en soit, la plupart de ces actes exécutifs peuvent être « instantanément défaits par Donald Trump », prévient Vincent Michelot, professeur de civilisation américaine à Sciences Po Lyon.

C’est d’ailleurs ce que promet le futur locataire de la Maison Blanche, qui a l’intention de revenir sur plusieurs réformes de son prédécesseur. Dans son contrat présidentiel, on peut lire ce qu’il compte faire dès son premier jour de mandat :

« Premièrement, abroger toutes les actions exécutives inconstitutionnelles, mémorandums et décrets mis en place par le président Obama. »

Certains actes présidentiels pris par M. Obama peuvent-ils contraindre son successeur ?

Oui

Face au risque de détricotage par son successeur, M. Obama possède une marge de manœuvre : appliquer, à travers des executive actions, des lois n’étant pas prévues pour être réversibles. C’est ce qu’il a fait pour interdire les forages offshore en Arctique et Atlantique : il s’est appuyé sur l’Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, loi sur les terres du plateau continental, qui donne au président le pouvoir de protéger les eaux fédérales et rend cette protection permanente dans le temps.

Le texte actuel ne permet pas d’autoriser à nouveau l’exploitation d’hydrocarbures une fois qu’une zone a été sanctuarisée. Et Vincent Michelot de préciser :

« Certaines règles édictées ces derniers jours seront très difficiles à abroger […] et consommatrices de temps parlementaire. Elles donnent aussi la possibilité aux associations de défense de l’environnement de porter le débat devant le judiciaire, ce qui signifie des procédures d’une durée de deux à quatre ans. »

Ce type de mesure pourrait-il être multiplié dans les prochains jours ? Vincent Michelot n’exclut pas cette possibilité :

« Si d’autres décisions similaires sont dans les tuyaux, notamment en matière d’environnement, M. Obama a tout intérêt à ne pas les annoncer à l’avance, pour bénéficier de l’effet de surprise et surtout mettre l’administration Trump au pied du mur. »

Le président sortant dispose-t-il d’autres pouvoirs en cette fin de mandat ?

Oui

Barack Obama a par exemple la possibilité de suspendre des dirigeants de l’administration ou de l’armée et de rendre publics des programmes confidentiels. L’hebdomadaire de gauche The Nation l’a appelé, début décembre, à utiliser une partie de ces pouvoirs. Notamment pour « déclassifier des documents secrets, gracier des lanceurs d’alertes [comme Chelsea Manning ou Edward Snowden] et punir des hauts responsables ayant abusé de leur pouvoir ». Pour l’heure, le président démocrate n’a pas donné suite à leur demande.

Par ailleurs, l’article II de la Constitution des Etats-Unis confère au président le pouvoir « d’accorder […] des grâces pour crimes contre les Etats-Unis ». Il s’agit d’une prérogative que M. Obama a largement utilisée au cours des derniers jours.

Pour la seule journée du 19 décembre, il a accordé 153 « commutations » (réduction ou suppression de peine) et 78 « pardons » (oubli de la condamnation après que celle-ci a été effectuée et plein rétablissement des droits civils – le vote par exemple). Il a d’ores et déjà battu le record historique du nombre de grâces accordées par un président en exercice.

« Il y aura d’autres grâces présidentielles pour certains condamnés », pronostique Vincent Michelot. L’administration Obama redoute un tournant sécuritaire avec M. Trump. Ce mouvement de grâces est donc également un message politique. Le dernier communiqué de la Maison Blanche sur le sujet est explicite :

« Nous devons rappeler que la grâce est un outil de dernier ressort et que seul le Congrès peut mettre en place les réformes plus larges nécessaires pour assurer à long terme que notre système de justice pénale fonctionne plus équitablement et plus efficacement au service de la sécurité publique. »

14 Responses to Présidence Trump: Attention, un fascisme peut en cacher un autre (Behind the Left’s constant crying wolf, Trump’s actions are largely an extension of prior temporary policies and a long-overdue return to sanity)

  1. jcdurbant dit :

    PLEASE ARREST ME, I’M A REFUGEE

    The only way for these refugees already in the U.S. to gain refugee status in Canada is for them to physically cross the border illegally. In fact, as soon as they arrive in the country, these refugees have been tracking down police officers to arrest them. (…) Because they need to report to the authorities within three days of entering Canada, in order to claim refugee status, some have been banging on locals’ doors to use the phone at 2 or 3am.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4224984/Canadian-towns-seeing-influx-refugee-crossings.html

    J’aime

  2. jcdurbant dit :

    NO VICHY, FRANCE ! (What a country — where even the vacuous have a voice !)

    Trump is right. [The media] is the opposition party. Indeed, furiously so, often indulging in appalling overkill. It’s sometimes embarrassing to read the front pages of the major newspapers, festooned as they are with anti-Trump editorializing masquerading as news. Nonetheless, if you take the view from 30,000 feet, better this than a press acquiescing on bended knee, where it spent most of the Obama years in a slavish Pravda-like thrall. Every democracy needs an opposition press. We damn well have one now. (…) What a country — where even the vacuous have a voice ! The anti-Trump opposition flatters itself as “the resistance.” As if this is Vichy France. It’s not. It’s 21st-century America. And the good news is that the checks and balances are working just fine.

    Charles Krauthammer

    J’aime

  3. jcdurbant dit :

    SELF-INFLICTED WATERLOO ?

    It seemed to me that Obama’s adoption of ideas developed at the Heritage Foundation in the early 1990s—and then enacted into state law in Massachusetts by Governor Mitt Romney—offered the best near-term hope to control the federal health-care spending that would otherwise devour the defense budget and force taxes upward. I suggested that universal coverage was a worthy goal, and one that would hugely relieve the anxieties of working-class and middle-class Americans who had suffered so much in the Great Recession. And I predicted that the Democrats remembered the catastrophe that befell them in 1994 when they promised health-care reform and failed to deliver. They had the votes this time to pass something. They surely would do so—and so the practical question facing Republicans was whether it would not be better to negotiate to shape that “something” in ways that would be less expensive, less regulatory, and less redistributive…

    David Frum

    J’aime

  4. jcdurbant dit :

    Nouveau flagrant délit de fausses nouvelles pour qui vous savez:

    The Mexican government on Wednesday rejected as unfounded and irresponsible a report that portrayed Mexico as the world’s second-deadliest conflict zone in 2016, after the report caught the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump.

    The report by the International Institute of Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank, said Mexico’s drug wars between rival cartels claimed 23,000 lives last year, second only to Syria where a civil war left some 50,000 people dead, and more than conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

    On Wednesday, Mr. Trump retweeted a Twitter post by the Drudge Report linking to a news article about the IISS’s armed-conflict survey. Mr. Trump has repeatedly said Mexico is unable to control its drug cartels, whose members he has referred to as “bad hombres,” to justify a tougher stance on border security.

    An estimated 10,000 people have died each year on average in crimes related to drug gangs since the government began deploying the armed forces to cartel hot spots in late 2006, given the ineffectiveness of local police forces that are often incompetent or corrupt, according to security expert Alejandro Hope. Another 30,000 people are missing, most of them presumed to be victims of the cartels.
    Mexico’s homicide rate increased in 2015 and 2016 after three years of declines. Around 21,000 people were murdered last year, a 22% increase from 2015, according to preliminary figures from the Interior Ministry. Experts expect homicides could rise to more than 22,000 in 2017, which would be the highest since 2011 if the trend from the first three months of the year continues.

    But the portrayal of Mexico as a “conflict zone” brought criticism from security analysts who have long studied the drug-cartel problem. “Why not consider Brazil, which has more than 50,000 homicides a year, or Colombia, or El Salvador as conflict zones?” said Mr. Hope.

    Experts also said that homicide rates, not absolute figures, are the best way to compare levels of violence among countries. Mexico ended last year with a homicide rate of 17 per 100,000 people, according to the Interior Ministry. Venezuela’s homicide rate soared to 70 per 100,000 people in 2016, according to the country’s attorney general’s office, making it one of the highest in the world. In Brazil, the homicide rate was 25 per 100,000 in 2014, according to the most recent World Bank data, while in Colombia it was 28 per 100,000.

    “There is a difference between saying that Reynosa [in the border state of Tamaulipas] is a very dangerous city and saying that the situation there is similar to that of Aleppo,” Mr. Hope added, referring to the war-ravaged Syrian city.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexico-slams-report-on-violence-highlighted-by-trump-1494443805

    J’aime

  5. jcdurbant dit :

    FROM ARGUMENTUM AD HITLERUM TO ARGUMENTUM AD STALINUM

    “A view is not refuted by the fact that it happens to have been shared by Hitler. »

    Leo Strauss

    It will be seen that, as used, the word ‘Fascism’ is almost entirely meaningless … I have heard it applied to farmers, shopkeepers, Social Credit, corporal punishment, fox-hunting, bull-fighting, the 1922 Committee, the 1941 Committee, Kipling, Gandhi, Chiang Kai-Shek, homosexuality, Priestley’s broadcasts, Youth Hostels, astrology, women, dogs and I do not know what else. The word “fascist” has been degraded “to the level of a swearword.”

    George Orwell

    « As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1.”

    Mike Godwin

    « Please stop it with voting for Trump. It was funny for a little while. But the guy is Hitler. And by that I mean that we are being Germany in the 30s. »

    Louis C.K.

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/trump-hitler-comparisons-213711

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/09/11/teacher-assigns-project-comparing-hitler-and-george-w-bush/15440065/

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2004/jan/5/20040105-114507-1007r/

    J’aime

  6. jcdurbant dit :

    WHAT IMMIGRATION ISSUES ?

    « They have transformed peaceful parks and beautiful quiet neighborhoods into blood-stained killing fields. They’re animals. »

    President Trump

    Officers told Newsday that two of the suspects, Vidal Contrera-Ortiz, 18, and Miguel Rivera, 20, were illegal immigrants. The three other suspects — Jorge Bermudez Cedillos, 18; Lilliana Villanueva, 17; and Oscar Fuentes, 18 — came to the U.S. as unaccompanied minors. All five are Salvadoran, and all but Rivera attend Brentwood High School…

    http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/12/09/ms-13-foiled-in-attempt-to-kidnap-kill-teen-boy-on-long-island.html

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/ms-13-is-%e2%80%98taking-over-the-school%e2%80%99-one-teen-warned-before-she-was-killed/ar-BBK4n0L?ocid=sf

    J’aime

  7. jcdurbant dit :

    IT’S NOT RACISM OR ANTISEMITISM, IT’S INTERSECTIONALITY, STUPID ! (Any means necessary as long as it’s for a progressive cause)

    There is almost nothing new in his latest hate-filled accusations. Farrakhan in the past has praised Hitler and derided Judaism as a gutter religion. Yet I say “almost nothing new” because the 84-year-old Farrakhan is now empowered by a new generation of leftist, minority, and feminist activists such as Tamika Mallory, Carmen Perez, and Linda Sarsour, who coordinate marches with Farrakhan or ardently praise him.

    If Muhammad had released his picture of Obama and Farrakhan in 2005, and if he’d disclosed that Nation of Islam people were working on his U.S. Senate campaign, Obama’s political aspirations probably would not have survived the outrage. Certainly, if a Senator John McCain or former governor Mitt Romney had posed for a photo-op in the U.S. Capitol with David Duke, while hiring members of the Klan to work on their staffs, they would have been disgraced and their careers quickly aborted.

    In the old days, anti-Semitism was more the domain of white rednecks railing against supposedly sneaky, rich, Eastern bankers and New York traders. Today it is the “intersectional” collection of black extremists, Palestinian nationalists, and radical feminists. They apparently feel immune from charges of anti-Semitism, on the premise that minorities cannot themselves be bigots and that leftists can loathe and single out Israel for inordinate venom, but not be anti-Semitic.

    In sum, the octogenarian Farrakhan is now a mainstream identity-politics activist and an apparently integral part of the new Democratic party’s “inclusion” agenda. Why else would Representative Jim Clyburn (the third-ranking Democrat in the House) have shared a stage with him? Or why would DNC vice chairman Keith Ellison (former Nation of Islam member) shrug off his relationship to Farrakhan with the assertion, “I am telling you, no one cares.”

    Now a new generation of race-obsessed activists in big cities hounds out so-called neighborhood interlopers. Opponents of gentrification use the same old tactics of vandalizing newcomers’ property and attempting to destroy their businesses. In the old days, liberalism defended the efforts of “the other” to integrate into neighborhoods of the majority. Not now.

    Instead, it is okay for anti-gentrification activists to use racist language (“Be wary of white men” is a talking point in Los Angeles) to harass so-called yuppies, who wish to move into their traditional barrios. What would happen if there were like-minded bigots in Palos Verdes who organized patrols to stop Mexican Americans from buying homes in their neighborhood, as they marched with placards saying “Be wary of brown men”?

    there have always been illegal attempts to alter U.S. political campaigns, and we’ve seen many political movements intended to promote the interests of foreign countries. What is different is that these efforts are for now legally and ethically exempt from scrutiny, as the necessary means to achieve noble ends.

    All these various paradoxes point to a shared theme. The common denominator is the ceaseless quest for power and influence. A Linda Sarsour or a Representative Danny Davis doesn’t much care whether Farrakhan is a racist, an anti-Semite, and a bigot. But they do understand that he has a large African-American following they can absorb into their own political agendas.

    Progressives are not much upset about the notion of foreigners meddling and warping U.S. politics. They indeed seem to approve of the idea that an American campaign would hire a British subject who, colluding with Russians, could help their candidate, Hillary Clinton, derail Donald Trump. And Russians aiding American greens to shut down fracking? Progressives shrug. A major Mexican politician moves to the U.S. to help Clinton organize Mexican-Americans voters to stop Trump — more shrugging.

    We are back to the future of various grievance groups using venom, probably illegal actions, and outright threats to further a political agenda that has not won majority support and whose ends cannot be realized without the use of dubious means — any means necessary — to achieve them.

    VDH

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/03/new-left-embraces-louis-farrakhan-identity-politics/

    J’aime

  8. jcdurbant dit :

    GOOD RIDDANCE ! (Trump effect: With the world’s changing tide on immigration, Merkel goes from powerbroker to charity case)

    Once, Merkel was queen of Europe, now she’s a beggar. Suddenly, European politics has changed beyond recognition. Merkel may, by now, regret standing for re-election last year. There was a suspicion that she only did so to put things right in Euroland and ensure the history books would commend her open-door policy towards refugees. If so, that was a catastrophic misjudgment. The tide has now turned on migration — in Germany and across Europe. Those making the case for an open Europe are haunted and chastised. They are losing elections. Italy’s new coalition of left- and right-wing populists is a fiesta of political contradictions, but they share one simple goal: to stop the migration population from growing. They have little sympathy for Merkel and feel no obligation to offer help in her hour of need. As far as the Italians can work out, the verdict is in: Merkel was wrong and she’s lost.

    Viktor Orban in Hungary and Jaroslaw Kaczynski in Poland feel that their views on immigration have been vindicated — not just at home, but across Europe. And why shouldn’t they? Much as their migration policies are flawed, they are winning the battle of ideas over border controls and openness. They have many new allies in European capitals. Slovakia and the Czech Republic, the two other members of the Visegrad four, now have leaders who complain about Muslim immigration. And yes, Emmanuel Macron’s victory was astonishing — but a third of France still voted for Marine Le Pen.

    Even a year ago, Orban and Kaczynski could still be dismissed as loonies and fruitcakes. They were irritants, for sure, but lacked charisma and had no reach outside their own small parishes. Merkel’s view of Europe was the consensus. When Macron took the Elysée, it was hoped that normal service would resume and Europe would be purged from grubby thoughts about migrants. Merkel’s case for a common European policy on refugees seemed likely to win.

    But the elections in Italy and Austria changed all that. Having populists in former Soviet bloc states is one thing: having them running western European states is quite another. The balance of power keeps changing, shifting ever further away from Merkel. The incoming prime minister of Slovenia, Janez Jansa, is a migration hardliner and, like many others in the Balkan region, he sees Europe’s political future as being represented by Budapest rather than Berlin. The nationalist Sweden Democrats are riding high in the polls ahead of the September elections. And even they blanch at the asylum policies being proposed by the left in Denmark. The reality in Europe is moving far faster than the political debate in Brussels.

    So what to do? Merkel now stands as the charity case, not the powerbroker. Macron offers her some respite, saying that he’ll help her by taking back the few asylum seekers in Germany who registered first in France. But far more refugees will have registered first in Italy, and the odds on its new government taking them back are slim. In Austria, Kurz is focusing on a plan to force refugees to apply for asylum before they enter the EU. When Austria assumes the EU’s rotating presidency next month, Kurz will make this a centrepiece of his agenda.

    Kurz’s stance is unacceptable to Merkel. Belgium and the Netherlands are also protesting because they fear that what Austria and Italy want is a fortress Europe and that forcing migrants to apply from overseas centres will lead to inhumane migration detention camps, as seen in Australia. But can she fight against it?

    If Merkel wants to stay in power in Germany, she will need to be wary of the politicians in her own CDU ranks who are closer to Seehofer. Yes, many have now come out in her support — but only because they dislike Seehofer’s gaudy style and the anti-European noise coming from CSU leaders in Bavaria. But if Merkel is increasingly seen as a busted flush, more voters in CDU heartlands may turn elsewhere. If her leadership recently took them to their worst election results since 1949, what might await them after more years of Merkel in power?

    Whatever Merkel now chooses to do will cause her reputation to crumble. If she escalates the conflict with Seehofer — and fires him from government — it may be the end of the German centre-right as the party of government. If she goes along with Austrian and Italian demands to turn back migrants and create a fortress Europe, she will be admitting that her open-door policy on migration killed her own vision of a Europe that is welcoming to people fleeing from oppressive governments. She has run out of good options, as well as political authority. She might limp on in Germany for a few more years yet, but her long reign in Europe has ended.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/06/angelas-ashes-merkels-grand-project-is-crumbling/

    J’aime

  9. jcdurbant dit :

    GOOD FENCES MAKE GOOD NEIGHBORS (Guess who turned out to be right about the need for walls ?)

    What kind of a president would build a wall to keep out families dreaming of a better life? It’s a question that has been asked world over, especially after the outrage last week over migrant children at the American border. Donald Trump’s argument, one which his supporters agree with, is that the need to split parents from children at the border strengthens his case for a hardline immigration policy. Failure to patrol the border, he says, encourages tens of thousands to cross it illegally — with heartbreaking results. His opponents think he is guilty, and that his wall is a symbol of America closing in on itself…

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/06/mass-immigration-has-destroyed-hopes-of-a-borderless-society/

    J’aime

  10. jcdurbant dit :

    HOW RACIST CAN YOU GET ? (Guess who four years ago strongly objected to the open-borders policy many of his younger Democratic comrades now claim to support ?)

    « Open borders? No, that’s a Koch brothers proposal. The idea is a right-wing scheme meant to flood the US with cheap labor and depress wages for native-born workers. I think from a moral responsibility, we’ve got to work with the rest of the industrialized world to address the problems of international poverty, but you don’t do that by making people in this country even poorer. »

    Bernie Sanders

    I was disappointed, if not surprised, at the visceral horror with which Bernie Sanders reacted to the idea when interviewed by my colleague Ezra Klein. « Open borders? » he interjected. « No, that’s a Koch brothers proposal. » The idea, he argued, is a right-wing scheme meant to flood the US with cheap labor and depress wages for native-born workers. « I think from a moral responsibility, we’ve got to work with the rest of the industrialized world to address the problems of international poverty, » he conceded, « but you don’t do that by making people in this country even poorer. » There are two problems with Sanders’s view on this, one empirical and one moral. He’s wrong about what the effects of an open-border policy would be on American workers, and he’s wrong in treating Americans’ lives as more valuable and worthy of concern than the lives of foreigners.

    The existing economic literature suggests that eliminating all barriers on movement between nations would increase world GDP by 50 to 150 percent. The midpoint estimate is that the world economy would double. That’s because people are much more productive in rich countries. Because of better technology, more skilled co-workers, better institutions, and the like, a worker doing the same job will earn vastly more for it in the US than in, say, Haiti. And if everyone were able to take jobs where they’d earn the most, the cumulative effect on the economy would be massive. Even the biggest opponents of immigration will concede that much. Immigration obviously increases growth, just as tearing down trade barriers does. The question is whom that growth goes toward. A lot of it goes to migrants, who see their incomes grow dramatically for doing the same work. Even according to George Borjas, the single most-cited anti-immigration economist, immigration doesn’t make the existing workforce worse off on average. But it does, he claims, most likely reduce wages substantially for people lacking high school degrees.

    There are a few things to say in response to this. One is that even if there are losers from immigration, it should be possible to compensate them by redistributing money from the winners. The second is that Borjas is only looking at relative effects: how high school dropouts are affected compared with, say, college graduates. He actually assumes that the effect on native workers as a whole is neutral. If the effect on all workers is positive, it’s possible that the absolute effect on high school dropouts is positive, even if they gain less than other workers. It’s also worth noting that immigration appears to boost high school graduation rates — so even if high school dropouts are made worse off, there would be fewer people bearing that burden.

    The third point is that Borjas’s results are heavily contested — and most of the rest of the literature suggests that the effect on native workers’ wages is neutral or positive. In particular, high-quality studies that use « natural experiments » — cases where there was a big, unexpected spike in immigration — suggest that the absolute effect of immigration on native workers is neutral or positive. It’s much easier to isolate the effect on native workers in those cases than it is by trying to statistically weed out other potential causes of changes in wages. The Mariel boatlift, when Cuba unexpectedly sent 125,000 people to Florida, did not hurt employment or wages among native workers in Miami at all. A huge spike in Russian immigration to Israel in the early 1990s appeared to give existing workers a nearly 9 percent raise.

    Finally, the positive economic effects of immigration extend beyond just wages. Immigration increases property values, building wealth for many native-born workers (and, admittedly, raising rents for others). Increased immigration reduces the price of services provided by immigrants, such as gardening and housekeeping. There’s some evidence that immigration even gets more women into the workforce by making it cheaper to hire people to watch after children and elderly relatives, and perform other homemaking tasks.

    As economist Michael Clemens once told me, the effect of immigration on real wages for native workers is « definitely positive, without any doubt whatsoever. » A recent evidence review by researcher David Roodman confirms this: While low-skilled immigration can make the existing low-skilled immigrant population worse off (though almost certainly not worse off than in their country of origin), Americans born here have very little to worry about, and a lot to gain.

    It’s true that all of our empirical research pertains to increases in immigration that are milder than pure open borders. The best we have to go on in guessing the effects of a total open-border policy are simulations. But those simulations show an increase in world GDP massive enough that it’s fair to guess they’ll hold harmless or help US workers — just as the data suggests smaller-scale immigration does. « This isn’t just trickle-down economics. It’s Niagara Falls economics, » economist Bryan Caplan once told me. « If production in the world were to double, almost everyone is going to get enough of that doubling that they’re going to, in the end, be better off as a result. »

    If Bernie Sanders thinks we ought to give strict priority to the interests of immigrants already in the United States, even if doing so makes native-born workers and potential migrants worse off, then that’s a very interesting opinion that I’d love to hear him attempt to defend. But the claim that American-born workers would suffer from open borders and increased immigration is bogus, and he should stop making it.
    People are people, so why should it be that we treat potential immigrants so awfully?

    The second problem isn’t a matter of facts, but of values. As a US senator, Sanders believes he is obligated to put the interests of the United States — and of Vermont in particular — ahead of the interests of any other country. That means, for him, heavily discounting the interests of people in other countries.

    Even if you think this makes sense, it doesn’t make restricting immigration acceptable. Privileging the interests of Americans doesn’t mean that US policymakers have the right to needlessly hurt foreigners. Not even the most ardent nationalist would say that the US has a right to, say, massacre 10,000 foreign civilians to save a single American life. And make no mistake: Using force to restrict access to the United States hurts foreigners dramatically.

    « Taking the idea that all people are created equal seriously entails supporting open borders »

    The philosopher Michael Huemer has a great thought experiment making this point. Imagine a man, Marvin, is starving to death, and goes to a marketplace to buy bread. Another man, Sam, forcibly stops him and prevents him from buying bread. Marvin starves to death.

    That’s wrong, right? And it’s still wrong if the harm caused is less severe. Say Marvin isn’t going to the marketplace to buy bread, but instead to sell it. If he sells it at that particular marketplace, he will make 15 times more money than if he sold it at the other marketplace in town. But Sam stops him, by force, from selling at the lucrative marketplace, forcing him to settle for the other market, where he makes 15 times less.

    The analogy is not exactly subtle: Marvin is a potential immigrant (in this case from Nigeria; recall that moving from Nigeria to the US raises an average migrant’s earnings 15-fold), and Sam is a US border patrol agent. If you think Sam is hurting Marvin by barring him from selling bread from the good market, you’ve got to think that border agents are hurting immigrants by keeping them from coming to work in the US.

    « I’m sure Sanders believes that Nigerian lives and Bangladeshi lives and Haitian lives matter. But if he does, then his views on immigration must change. »

    Maybe such harm would be justified if it prevents a major harm from befalling native-born Americans. But immigration does not harm native-born Americans on average. It helps them. It’s hard to avoid the conclusion, then, that our border policy is causing major, unacceptable harm to immigrants. Even if you don’t think the US is obligated to help immigrants, restricting immigration is wrong, because it actively hurts them.

    Personally, I think the distinction between « not helping » and « hurting » isn’t that meaningful. I do think the US is obligated to help immigrants. I think Bernie Sanders is obligated to weigh the interests of a poor potential Nigerian immigrant equally to those of a much richer native-born American. I think if he saw an immigrant drowning in a pond, he has just as much of a duty to rescue her as he would if she were a native-born American, and the same duty applies when he’s voting in the US Senate. Taking that idea seriously — the idea that all people are created equal, and deserve to be treated as though their lives matter regardless of their place of birth — entails supporting open borders.

    I don’t doubt that Sanders thinks he takes equality seriously. I’m sure he thinks he’s an egalitarian. I’m sure he believes that Nigerian lives and Bangladeshi lives and Haitian lives matter. But if he does, then his views on immigration must change.

    https://www.vox.com/2015/7/29/9048401/bernie-sanders-open-borders

    J’aime

  11. jcdurbant dit :

    IT’S HALF WAY TO AUSCHWITZ, STUPID ! (Guess who for four months in 2014 temporarily housed migrants at military bases, including Fort Sill, built many of the newer facilities to house migrants, and pioneered some of the tactics the Trump administration is now using to try to manage the situation at the border ?)

    “We have what I would call a concentration camp system and the definition of that in my book is, mass detention of civilians without trial. There’s this crystallization that happens. The longer they’re there, the worse conditions get. That’s just a universal of camps. They’re overcrowded. We already know from reports that they don’t have enough beds for the numbers that they have. As you see mental health crises and contagious diseases begin to set in, they’ll work to manage the worst of it. [But] then there will be the ability to tag these people as diseased, even if we created [those conditions]. Then we, by creating the camps, try to turn that population into the false image that we [used] to put them in the camps to start with. Over time, the camps will turn those people into what Trump was already saying they are. « What those camps had in common with what’s going on today is they involved the wholesale detention of families, separate or together, » Pitzer says. « There was very little in the way of targeted violence. Instead, people died from poor planning, overloaded facilities and unwillingness to reverse policy, even when it became apparent the policy wasn’t working, inability to get medical care to detainees, poor food quality, contagious diseases, showing up in an environment where it became almost impossible to get control of them. The point is that you don’t have to intend to kill everybody. When people hear the phrase ‘Oh, there’s concentration camps on the southern border,’ they think, ‘Oh, it’s not Auschwitz.’ Of course, it’s not those things, each camp system is different. But you don’t have to intend to kill everyone to have really bad outcomes. In Cuba, well over 100,000 civilians died in these camps in just a period of a couple years. In Southern Africa during the Boer War, fatalities went into the tens of thousands. And the overwhelming majority of them were children. Fatalities in the camps ended up being more than twice the combat fatalities from the war itself. There’s usually this crisis period that a camp system either survives or doesn’t survive in the first three or four years. If it goes past that length of time, they tend to continue for a really long time. And I think we have entered that crisis period. I don’t yet know if we’re out of it. Unless there’s some really decisive turn away, we’re going to be looking at having these camps for a long time. It’s particularly hard to engineer a decisive turn because these facilities are often remote, and hard to protest. They are not top-of-mind for most citizens, with plenty of other issues on the table. When Trump first instituted the Muslim Ban—now considered, in its third iteration, to be Definitely Not a Muslim Ban by the Supreme Court—there were mass demonstrations at U.S. airports because they were readily accessible by concerned citizens. These camps are not so easily reached, and that’s a problem. We have border patrol agents that are sometimes arresting U.S. citizens. That’s still very much a fringe activity. That doesn’t seem to be a dedicated priority right now, but it’s happening often enough. And they’re held, sometimes, for three or four days. Even when there are clear reasons that people should be let go, that they have proof of their identity, you’re seeing these detentions. You do start to worry about people who have legally immigrated and have finished paperwork, and maybe are naturalized. You worry about green-card holders. Let’s say there’s 20 hurdles that we have to get over before we get to someplace really, really, really bad. I think we’ve knocked 10 of them down. »

    Andrea Pfitzer

    « What’s required is a little bit of demystification of it. Things can be concentration camps without being Dachau or Auschwitz. Concentration camps in general have always been designed—at the most basic level—to separate one group of people from another group. Usually, because the majority group, or the creators of the camp, deem the people they’re putting in it to be dangerous or undesirable in some way. At one point, [the administration] said that they were intentionally trying to split up families and make conditions unpleasant, so the people wouldn’t come to the U.S. If you’re doing that, then that’s not a prison. That’s not a holding area or a waiting area. That’s a policy. I would argue, at least in the way that [the camps are] being used now, a significant portion of the mentality is [tied to] who the [detainees] are rather than what they did. If these were Canadians flooding across the border, would they be treated in the same manner as the people from Mexico and from Central and South America? If the answer is yes, theoretically, then I would consider these places to be perhaps better described as transit camps or prison camps. But I suspect that’s not how they’d be treated, which then makes it much more about who the people are that you’re detaining, rather than what they did. The Canadian would have crossed the border just as illegally as the Mexican, but my suspicion is, would be treated in a different way. It’s a negative trajectory in at least two ways. One, I feel like these policies can snowball. We’ve already seen unintended consequences. If we follow the thread of the children, for example, the government wanted to make things more annoying, more painful. So they decided, We’re going to separate the children from the families. But there was no infrastructure in place for that. You already have a scenario where even if you have the best intentions, the infrastructure doesn’t exist to support it. That’s a consequence of policy that hasn’t been thought through. As you see the population begin to massively increase over time, you do start to see conditions diminishing. The second piece is that the longer you establish this sort of extralegal, extrajudicial, somewhat-invisible no-man’s land, the more you allow potentially a culture of abuse to develop within that place. Because the people who tend to become more violent, more prejudiced, whatever, have more and more free rein for that to become sort of the accepted behavior. Then, that also becomes a new norm that can spread throughout the system. There is sort of an escalation of individual initiative in violence. As it becomes clear that that is acceptable, then you have a self-fulfilling prophecy or a positive feedback loop that just keeps radicalizing the treatment as the policy itself becomes radicalizing. »

    Waitman Wade Beorn (University of Virginia)

    « In the origins of the camps, it’s tied to the idea of martial law. I mean, all four of the early instances—Americans in the Philippines, Spanish in Cuba, and British in South Africa, and Germans in Southwest Africa—they’re all essentially overriding any sense of rights of the civilian population. And the idea is that you’re able to suspend normal law because it’s a war situation. It’s important here to look at the language that people are using. As soon as you get people comparing other groups to animals or insects, or using language about advancing hordes, and we’re being overrun and flooded and this sort of thing, it’s creating the sense of this enormous threat. And that makes it much easier to sell to people on the idea we’ve got to do something drastic to control this population which going to destroy us. « Unless there’s some really decisive turn away, we’re going to be looking at having these camps for a long time, » Pitzer says. It’s particularly hard to engineer a decisive turn because these facilities are often remote, and hard to protest. They are not top-of-mind for most citizens, with plenty of other issues on the table. When Trump first instituted the Muslim Ban—now considered, in its third iteration, to be Definitely Not a Muslim Ban by the Supreme Court—there were mass demonstrations at U.S. airports because they were readily accessible by concerned citizens. These camps are not so easily reached, and that’s a problem. The more authoritarian the regime is, and the more people allow governments to get away with doing this sort of thing politically, the worse the conditions are likely to get. So, a lot of it depends on how much pushback there is. But when you get a totally authoritarian regime like Stalin’s regime in the Soviet Union, there’s no control, or no countervailing force, the state can do what it likes, and certainly things will then tend to break down. It’s more of a political question, really. Are people prepared to tolerate the deteriorating conditions? And if public opinion isn’t effective in a liberal democratic situation, things can still get pretty bad. »

    Jonathan Hyslop (Colgate University)

    Not every concentration camp is a death camp—in fact, their primary purpose is rarely extermination, and never in the beginning. Often, much of the death and suffering is a result of insufficient resources, overcrowding, and deteriorating conditions. So far, 24 people have died in the custody of Immigration and Customs Enforcement under the Trump administration, while six children have died in the care of other agencies since September. Systems like these have emerged across the world for well over 100 years, and they’ve been established by putative liberal democracies—as with Britain’s camps in South Africa during the Boer War—as well as authoritarian states like Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union. Camps set up with one aim can be repurposed by new regimes, often with devastating consequences.

    History is banging down the door this week with the news the Trump administration will use Fort Sill, an Oklahoma military base that was used to detain Japanese-Americans during World War II, to house 1,400 unaccompanied migrant children captured at the border. Japanese internment certainly constituted a concentration-camp system, and the echoes of the past are growing louder. Of course, the Obama administration temporarily housed migrants at military bases, including Fort Sill, for four months in 2014, built many of the newer facilities to house migrants, and pioneered some of the tactics the Trump administration is now using to try to manage the situation at the border.

    The government of the United States would never call the sprawling network of facilities now in use across many states « concentration camps, » of course. They’re referred to as « federal migrant shelters » or « temporary shelters for unaccompanied minors » or « detainment facilities » or the like. (The initial processing facilities are run by Border Patrol, and the system is primarily administered to by the Department of Homeland Security. Many adults are transferred to ICE, which now detains more than 52,000 people across 200 facilities on any given day—a record high. Unaccompanied minors are transferred to Department of Health and Human Services custody.) But by Pitzer’s measure, the system at the southern border first set up by the Bill Clinton administration, built on by Barack Obama’s government, and brought into extreme and perilous new territory by Donald Trump and his allies does qualify. Two historians who specialize in the area largely agree.

    Many of the people housed in these facilities are not « illegal » immigrants. If you present yourself at the border seeking asylum, you have a legal right to a hearing under domestic and international law. They are, in another formulation, refugees—civilian non-combatants who have not committed a crime, and who say they are fleeing violence and persecution. Yet these human beings, who mostly hail from Central America’s Northern Triangle of Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador—a region ravaged by gang violence and poverty and corruption and what increasingly appears to be some of the first forced migrations due to climate change—are being detained on what increasingly seems to be an indefinite basis.

    Meanwhile, the Trump administration continually seeks new ways to stop people from applying for asylum, and to discourage others from attempting to. The current regime has sought to restrict the asylum criteria to exclude the exact issues, like gang or domestic violence, that these desperate people often cite for why they fled their homes. The administration has sought to introduce application fees and work-permit restraints. They have tried to prohibit migrants from seeking asylum « if they have resided in a country other than their own before coming to the U.S., » which would essentially eliminate anyone who traveled to the border through Mexico. Much of this has been struck down in federal court.

    But most prominently, Trump’s Department of Homeland Security has used « metering » at the border, where migrants are forced to wait for days or weeks on the Mexican side—often sleeping in makeshift shelters or fully exposed to the elements—until they are allowed across border checkpoints to make their asylum claims and be processed. That processing system is overwhelmed, and the Obama administration also used metering at various points, but it remains unclear whether the wait times need to be as long as they are. (DHS did not respond to a request for comment.) There are no guarantees on how long migrants will have to wait, and so they’ve increasingly turned to crossing illegally between checkpoints—which constitutes « illegal entry, » a misdemeanor—in order to present themselves for asylum. This criminalizes them, and the Trump administration tried to make illegal entry a disqualifier for asylum claims. The overall effort appears to be to make it as difficult as possible to get a hearing to adjudicate those claims, raising the specter that people can be detained longer or indefinitely.

    All this has been achieved through two mechanisms: militarization and dehumanization. In her book, Pitzer describes camps as “a deliberate choice to inject the framework of war into society itself. » These kinds of detention camps are a military endeavor: they are defensible in wartime, when enemy combatants must be detained, often for long periods without trial. They were a hallmark of World War I Europe. But inserting them into civil society, and using them to house civilians, is a materially different proposition. You are revoking the human and civil rights of non-combatants without legal justification.

    Another issue is that these camp systems, no matter where they are in the world, tend to fall victim to expanding criteria. The longer they stay open, the more reasons a government finds to put people in them. That’s particularly true if a new regime takes control of an existing system, as the Trump administration did with ours. The mass detention of asylum-seekers—who, again, have legal rights—on this scale is an expansion of the criteria from « illegal » immigrants, who were the main class of detainee in the ’90s and early 2000s. Asylum seekers, particularly unaccompanied minors, began arriving in huge numbers and were detained under the Obama administration. But there has been an escalation, both because of a deteriorating situation in the Northern Triangle and the Trump administration’s attempts to deter any and all migration. There is reason to believe the criteria will continue to expand…

    https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a27813648/concentration-camps-southern-border-migrant-detention-facilities-trump/

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