Le défi du monde post-moderne est de s’habituer à l’idée de deux poids deux mesures. Entre nous, nous fonctionnons sur la base de lois et du principe de la sécurité ouverte et coopérative. Mais dans nos rapports avec des types d’Etat moins avancés en dehors du continent post-moderne de l’Europe, nous devons revenir aux méthodes moins policées de jadis – la force, l’attaque préemptive, la dissimulation, tout ce qui peut être nécessaire pour traiter avec ceux qui vivent toujours dans le monde du XIXe monde du chacun pour soi. Entre nous, nous respectons la loi mais quand nous sommes confrontés à la jungle, il nous faut à notre tour employer les lois de la jungle. Robert Cooper
Nous ne pouvons accepter ni un monde politiquement unipolaire, ni un monde culturellement uniforme, ni l’unilatéralisme de la seule hyperpuissance. Hubert Védrine (1999)
La combinaison de la religion et du nationalisme en Amérique est effrayante. Nous nous sentons trahis par Dieu et le nationalisme et c’est pourquoi nous bâtissons l’Union européenne comme barrière à la guerre religieuse. Dominique Moisi (IFRI, 2006)
Les deux candidats à la succession de M. Bush, John McCain et Barack Obama, ont pour point commun de vouloir tourner la page du « bushisme ». Il faut espérer que, quel que soit le vainqueur de l’élection du 4 novembre, sa présidence mettra fin à une des périodes les plus sombres de la relation entre les Etats-Unis et l’Europe. Le Monde
La situation est riche en ironies. Le rejet par l’Europe de la Machtpolitik, son hostilité à l’usage des armes en politique internationale, dépendent de la présence de troupes américaines sur son sol. Le nouvel ordre kantien dont elle jouit ne pouvait fleurir que sous le parapluie protecteur de la puissance américaine exercée selon les règles du vieil ordre hobbésien. (…) Les dirigeants américains sont convaincus que la sécurité mondiale et l’ordre libéral, tout comme le paradis « postmoderne » qu’est l’Europe, ne sauraient survivre longtemps si l’Amérique n’utilisait pas sa puissance dans ce monde dangereux, hobbésien, qui est toujours la règle hors d’Europe. (…) Ainsi, bien que les Etats-Unis aient eu naguère le rôle décisif dans l’accès de l’Europe au paradis kantien, et le jouent toujours pour en assurer la survie, ils ne sauraient eux-mêmes entrer dans cet éden. Ils en gardent la muraille, mais ne peuvent en franchir la porte. Les Etats-Unis, en dépit de leur puissance considérable, demeurent englués dans l’histoire, contraints d’affronter les Saddam Hussein, les ayatollahs, les Kim Jong-iI et les Jiang Zemin, laissant à d’autres la chance d’en toucher les dividendes. Robert Kagan (2002)
N’importe qui peut jouer les gentils quand les mauvais garçons ont été abattus et le train a sifflé trois fois. Alors les habitants de la ville qui jusque là tremblaient comme une feuille peuvent ressortir dans la grand’ rue et féliciter le shérif à coups de grandes claques dans le dos, se réjouissant que son pistolet soit à nouveau tranquillement rangé dans son étui – et que tous ces cadavres de méchants hors-la-loi soient commodément hors de vue chez le croque-morts. Victor Davis Hanson
Les Européens disent maintenant au revoir à M. Bush, et espèrent l’élection d’un président américain qui partage, le croient-ils, leurs attitudes sophistiquées de postnationalisme, post-modernisme et multiculturalisme. Mais ne soyez pas étonné si, afin de protéger la liberté et la démocratie chez eux dans les années à venir, les dirigeants européens commencent à ressembler de plus en plus au cowboy à la gâchette facile de l’étranger qu’ils se délectent aujourd’hui à fustiger. Natan Sharansky
A l’heure où, Bush s’éloignant seul dans le couchant, les commentateurs se réjouissent de plus en plus ouvertement de la victoire annoncée du candidat démocrate et de la fin qu’elle est censée apporter à la « politique de cowboy » de son prédécesseur …
Intéressante remise des pendules à l’heure de Natan Sharansky qui, tout en rappelant que la dénonciation de l’hyperpuissance avait déjà commencé sous Clinton, revient sur les liens inséparables entre une identité forte n’excluant pas nécessairement la dimension religieuse et une saine et robuste démocratie.
Et pointe, contre les théories à la mode post-identitaires, les contradictions de plus en plus criantes, dans nombre de pays européens, entre les restrictions sur l’expression religieuse dans la vie publique (comme les signes religieux à l’école) et le laxisme face à des atteintes beaucoup plus graves aux normes démocratiques de base comme les mariages forcés, les mutilations sexuelles ou les crimes d’honneur.
Avant de conclure, non sans ironie, sur le probable retour (menace fondamentaliste oblige!) des mêmes Européens, comme en témoignent les récentes victoires électorales des Merkel, Sarkozy et Berlusconi ainsi que la défaite surprise d’un Ken Livingston à la mairie de Londres, à la politique plus musclée d’une administration Bush qu’ils se délectent aujourd’hui à fustiger …
Democracies Can’t Compromise on Core Values
The Wall Street Journal
June 16, 2008
As the American president embarked on his farewell tour of Europe last week, Der Spiegel, echoing the sentiments of a number of leading newspapers on the Continent, pronounced « Europe happy to see the back of Bush. » Virtually everyone seems to believe that George W. Bush’s tenure has undermined trans-Atlantic ties.
There is also a palpable sense in Europe that America will move closer to Europe in the years ahead, especially if Barack Obama wins the presidential election.
But while Mr. Bush is widely seen by Europeans as a religious cowboy with a Manichean view on the world, Europe’s growing rift with America predates the current occupant of the White House. When a French foreign minister, Hubert Védrine, declared that his country « cannot accept a politically unipolar world, nor a culturally uniform world, nor the unilateralism of a single hyper power, » President Clinton was in the seventh year of his presidency and Mr. Bush was still governor of Texas.
The trans-Atlantic rift is not the function of one president, but the product of deep ideological forces that for generations have worked to shape the divergent views of Americans and Europeans. Foremost among these are different attitudes toward identity in general, and the relationship between identity and democracy in particular.
To Europeans, identity and democracy are locked in a zero-sum struggle. Strong identities, especially religious or national identities, are seen as a threat to democratic life. This is what Dominique Moisi, a special adviser at the French Institute of International Relations, meant when he said in 2006 that « the combination of religion and nationalism in America is frightening. We feel betrayed by God and by nationalism, which is why we are building the European Union as a barrier to religious warfare. »
This attitude can be traced back to the French Revolution, when the forces fighting under a universal banner of « liberty, equality and fraternity » were pitted against the Church.
In contrast, the America to which pilgrims flocked in search of religious freedom, and whose revolution amounted to an assertion of national identity, has been able to reconcile identity and freedom in a way no country has been able to match. That acute observer, Alexis de Tocqueville, long ago noted the « intimate union of the spirit of religion and the spirit of liberty » that was pervasive in America and made it so different than his native France.
The idea that strong identities are an inherent threat to democracy and peace became further entrenched in Europe in the wake of World War II. Exponents of what I call postidentity theories – postnationalism, postmodernism and multiculturalism – argued that only by shedding the particular identities that divide us could we build a peaceful world. Supranational institutions such as the EU, the International Court of Justice and the United Nations were supposed to help overcome the prejudices of the past and forge a harmonious world based on universal values and human rights.
While these ideas have penetrated academia and elite thinking in the U.S., they remain at odds with the views of most Americans, who see no inherent contradiction between maintaining strong identities and the demands of democratic life. On the contrary, the right to express one’s identity is seen as fundamental. Exercising such a right is regarded as acting in the best American tradition.
The controversy over whether Muslims should be able to wear a veil in public schools underscores the profound difference in attitudes between America and Europe. In Europe, large majorities support a law banning the veil in public schools. In the U.S., students wear the veil in public schools or state colleges largely without controversy.
At the same time severe limits are placed on the harmless expression of identity in the public square, some European governments refuse to insist that Muslim minorities abide by basic democratic norms. They turn a blind eye toward underage marriage, genital mutilation and honor killings.
The reality is that Muslim identity has grown stronger, has become more fundamentalist, and is increasingly contemptuous of a vapid « European » identity that has little vitality. All this may help explain why studies consistently show that efforts to integrate Muslims into society are much less effective in Europe than in America, where identity is much stronger.
Regardless of who wins in November, the attitudes of Americans toward the role of identity in democratic life are unlikely to change much. Relative to Europe, Americans will surely remain deeply patriotic and much more committed to their faiths.
Europeans, meanwhile, may move closer to the Americans in their views. The recent shift to the right in Europe – from the victory of conservative leaders like Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and Silvio Berlusconi to the surprise defeat of the leftist mayor of London, Ken Livingston – might partially reflect a belated awareness there that a unique heritage is under assault by a growing Muslim fundamentalism.
The logic of the struggle against this fundamentalist threat will inevitably demand the reassertion of the European national and religious identities that are now threatened.
Europeans are now saying goodbye to Mr. Bush, and hoping for the election of an American president who they believe shares their sophisticated postnational, postmodern and multicultural attitudes. But don’t be surprised if, in the years ahead, European leaders, in order to protect freedom and democracy at home, start sounding more and more like the straight-shooting cowboy from abroad they now love to hate.
Mr. Sharansky, a former Soviet dissident, is chairman of the Adelson Institute for Strategic Studies at the Shalem Center in Jerusalem. He is the author, most recently, of « Defending Identity: Its Indispensable Role in Protecting Democracy » (PublicAffairs).
Puissance américaine, faiblesse européenne
Il faut cesser de faire comme si Américains et Européens avaient une vision commune du monde, voire comme s’ils vivaient sur la même planète. Sur la question capitale de la puissance (quelle est son efficacité ? est-elle morale ? faut-il y aspirer ?), les points de vue divergent. L’Europe est en train de se détourner de la puissance ou, plus exactement, elle se dirige vers un au-delà de la puissance, vers un monde bien distinct de l’autre, où règnent la loi, la réglementation, la négociation et la coopération entre nations : en somme, elle est en train d’accéder au paradis post-historique où tout n’est qu’apaisement et prospérité, à l’idéal kantien de « paix perpétuelle ».
Les Etats-Unis, en revanche, restent embourbés dans l’histoire, déployant leur puissance dans le monde anarchique décrit par Hobbes, où l’on ne peut se fier aux lois et règles internationales, et où la véritable sécurité ainsi que la défense et la promotion d’un ordre libéral dépendent toujours de la possession de la puissance militaire et de son utilisation.
C’est ce qui explique qu’aujourd’hui, sur les grandes questions stratégiques et internationales, les Américains sont des habitants de Mars et les Européens de Vénus : ils ne sont que très rarement d’accord entre eux et se comprennent de moins en moins.
En tant qu’Américain vivant en Europe, il m’est plus aisé de percevoir cette opposition. Les Européens sont plus conscients qu’auparavant de l’aggravation des différences, sans doute parce qu’ils les redoutent de plus en plus (…). Selon eux, les Etats-Unis sont plus prompts à utiliser la force et moins patients que l’Europe dans le recours à la diplomatie. Les Américains croient volontiers que le monde est divisé en bons et méchants, amis et ennemis, alors que, selon l’Europe, le tableau est bien plus complexe. Face à des adversaires réels ou potentiels, les Américains préféreraient la coercition à la persuasion, le bâton à la carotte. Dans les affaires internationales, ils penseraient en termes de résultats définitifs : les problèmes doivent être résolus, les menaces éliminées. Enfin, les Américains seraient de plus en plus enclins à agir unilatéralement, et de moins en moins favorables aux actions entreprises sous l’égide d’institutions internationales comme l’ONU, ou à la coopération avec d’autres nations pour atteindre des objectifs communs, ils seraient plus sceptiques sur les bienfaits du droit international et préféreraient agir en dehors de lui quand ils l’estiment indispensable, voire simplement avantageux.
Quant à leur propre approche des problèmes, les Européens se plaisent à dire qu’elle est plus nuancée et plus habile : eux cherchent à influencer l’autre, indirectement, subtilement. Ils supporteraient mieux l’échec, et manifesteraient une plus grande patience quand la solution tarde à venir. Leurs préférences vont avant tout aux solutions pacifiques, à la négociation plutôt qu’à la coercition. Ils en appellent plus volontiers au droit international, aux accords internationaux et à l’opinion internationale pour juger les contentieux. Ils cherchent à utiliser les liens commerciaux et économiques pour lier les nations les unes aux autres (…). En dépit de ce que pensent de nombreux Européens et certains Américains, ces différences de culture stratégique ne sont pas une émanation naturelle du tempérament national des deux côtés de l’océan. Après tout, l’attitude pacifique que les Européens mettent aujourd’hui en avant est, du point de vue historique, tout à fait nouvelle. Elle est en rupture totale avec la culture stratégique opposée qui a dominé l’Europe pendant quatre siècles, et au moins jusqu’à la première guerre mondiale. Les gouvernements européens (sans oublier les peuples) qui se sont lancés avec enthousiasme dans ce conflit embrasant tout un continent étaient des partisans déclarés de la Machtpolitik. Alors que les racines de l’actuelle vision européenne de la politique internationale (comme les racines de l’Union européenne elle-même) remontent aux Lumières, la politique des grandes puissances de l’Europe pendant trois cents ans n’a guère suivi les préceptes visionnaires des philosophes et des physiocrates.
De même, dans le cas des Etats-Unis, ni leur actuelle insistance sur le rôle de la force dans les relations internationales ni leur goût prononcé pour l’unilatéralisme ou leur répugnance à signer des accords internationaux ne sont le fruit d’une longue tradition. Les Américains sont eux aussi des enfants de la pensée des Lumières, et, dans les premiers temps de leur indépendance, ils se sont montrés d’ardents apôtres de son credo. Les dirigeants américains du XVIIIe et du XIXe siècles tenaient un langage très voisins de celui des Européens d’aujourd’hui (…). Deux siècles plus tard, Américains et Européens ont échangé leurs statuts et leurs points de vue. Cela s’explique en partie par la spectaculaire modification de la géographie du pouvoir intervenue au XXe siècle : auparavant, quand les Etats-Unis n’étaient pas une grande puissance, ils prônaient la recherche d’accommodements, ce qui est la stratégie du faible. Aujourd’hui qu’ils sont les plus forts, ils se comportent comme les grandes puissances l’ont toujours fait. Quand les grandes puissances européennes dominaient la scène, elles affichaient un culte de la force et de la gloire des armes. Aujourd’hui, l’Europe voit le monde avec les yeux du faible (…). En constituant une unique entité politique et économique (exploit historique du traité de Maastricht en 1992), nombre d’Européens espéraient bien renouer avec la grandeur passée de l’Europe, mais sous une forme politique d’un nouveau type : l’ « Europe » allait devenir la seconde superpuissance, non seulement économiquement et politiquement, mais aussi militairement ; elle réglerait les crises survenant sur son continent, tels les conflits ethniques dans les Balkans, et retrouverait un rôle de premier plan sur la scène internationale. Dans les années 1990, les Européens pouvaient affirmer avec confiance que la puissance d’une Europe unie finirait par restaurer cette « multipolarité » que la fin de la guerre froide avait détruite. Et la plupart des Américains, avec des sentiments mélangés, acceptaient cette idée d’une superpuissance européenne en voie de constitution. De Harvard, Samuel P. Huntington prédisait que la création de l’Union européenne serait le maillon le plus important de la réaction mondiale à l’hégémonie américaine et ferait du XXIe siècle une époque véritablement « multipolaire ».
Mais ces prétentions européennes, comme les appréhensions américaines, se sont révélées infondées. Les années 1990 ont vu non pas l’ascension de l’Europe vers un statut de superpuissance mais la mise à nu de sa relative faiblesse. Au début de la décennie, le conflit en Bosnie-Herzégovine a révélé l’incapacité militaire de l’Europe et son impuissance politique ; à la fin de la décennie, le conflit du Kosovo a mis en pleine lumière l’infériorité européenne en matière de technique militaire et de capacité à mener une guerre moderne, laquelle ne pouvait aller qu’en se creusant. (…) Dans le meilleur des cas, son rôle se limitait à fournir des troupes pour le maintien de l’ordre après que les Etats-Unis, avec leurs seules forces ou presque, avaient mené à bien les phases militaires décisives de l’opération et stabilisé la situation. Comme le disaient certains en Europe, il y avait division du travail entre les Etats-Unis, qui « faisaient le dîner », et les Européens, qui « faisaient la vaisselle ».
Cette incapacité n’aurait pas dû être une surprise puisque c’était cette réduction de puissance qui avait contraint l’Europe à perdre de son influence internationale dès l’après-guerre. Ceux des Américains et des Européens qui assignaient à l’Europe la mission d’étendre son rôle stratégique au-delà de ses frontières lui fixaient un objectif déraisonnable. Au cours de la guerre froide, le rôle stratégique de l’Europe avait été de pourvoir à sa propre défense. Il était irréaliste de penser qu’elle pourrait retrouver un statut de superpuissance, à moins que les populations européennes ne soient prêtes à amputer fortement les programmes d’aide sociale au profit des programmes militaires. Or il était clair qu’elles ne le souhaitaient pas du tout. Non seulement les Européens n’étaient pas prêts à payer pour retrouver une capacité d’intervention militaire hors d’Europe, mais, après la fin de la guerre froide, ils se refusaient même à financer une force militaire suffisante pour conduire des opérations sur leur propre continent sans l’aide des Américains. (…) En moyenne, les budgets de la défense des Etats européens sont passés en dessous de 2 % du PIB. (…) De l’autre côté de l’Atlantique, la fin de la guerre froide avait eu des conséquences très différentes, même si les Américains comptaient bien, eux aussi, encaisser quelques dividendes de la paix. [Aujourd’hui] l’actuelle puissance militaire américaine et notamment sa capacité à intervenir en n’importe quel point du globe sont sans aucun précédent dans l’histoire. (…) Cette soudaine « unipolarité » a donc eu une conséquence totalement prévisible : les Etats-Unis ont montré de plus en plus d’inclination à utiliser leur force militaire à l’étranger. Puisqu’il n’y avait désormais plus d’URSS pour freiner, l’Amérique était libre d’intervenir où elle le voulait et quand elle le voulait. (…) La fin de la guerre froide, en accroissant l’écart, a exacerbé les désaccords. Contrairement à l’opinion répandue qui voudrait que les tensions entre l’Europe et l’Amérique aient commencé avec l’entrée en fonctions de George W. Bush en janvier 2001, elles étaient déjà patentes sous Clinton et remontent même à la présidence de George H. W. Bush.
Ce désaccord naturel entre les forts et les faibles, constant dans l’histoire, se retrouve aujourd’hui dans la querelle sur l’unilatéralisme entre les deux rivages de l’Atlantique. Les Européens sont convaincus que leur hostilité à l’unilatéralisme américain est la preuve de la supériorité de leur conception idéale de l’ordre mondial à créer, et ils ne sont guère prêts à admettre que ce rejet de l’unilatéralisme est aussi dicté par leur intérêt. Ce que les Européens redoutent dans l’unilatéralisme américain, c’est qu’il perpétue un monde hobbésien, où eux-mêmes risquent de devenir de plus en plus vulnérables. L’hégémonie américaine est peut-être bienveillante, mais aussi longtemps que ses actes retardent la création d’un ordre mondial garantissant davantage la sécurité des pays plus faibles, elle est objectivement dangereuse. C’est là une des raisons pour lesquelles, ces dernières années, un des principaux objectifs de la politique étrangère de l’Union a été, selon la formule d’un observateur européen, de « multilatéraliser » l’Amérique. Non que les Européens soient en passe de monter une coalition contre l’hégémonie américaine (comme Huntington et bien des théoriciens de la Realpolitik le soutiennent) en se dotant d’une puissance militaire qui puisse égaler la sienne : ils n’en font rien. Leur tactique, comme leur objectif, est celle des faibles : ils espèrent contenir la puissance de l’Amérique sans avoir à déployer des moyens égaux. Selon une tactique qui pourrait bien être l’exploit suprême de l’attaque oblique, ils cherchent à maîtriser le monstre en faisant appel à sa conscience.
Jusqu’ici, la tactique s’est révélée judicieuse. Car les Etats-Unis sont un monstre doté d’une conscience. Rien à voir avec la France de Louis XIV ou l’Angleterre de George III. Même entre eux, les Américains ne justifient jamais leurs actes par la raison d’Etat. Les Américains n’ont jamais accepté les principes de l’ancien ordre européen ni adopté les idées de Machiavel. Les Etats-Unis sont jusqu’au bout des ongles une société libérale et progressiste, et s’ils croient en la puissance, c’est comme moyen de faire avancer les principes d’une civilisation de liberté et d’un ordre du monde libéral. Les Américains partagent même les aspirations européennes à un système mondial plus ordonné, fondé non pas sur le jeu des puissances mais sur le règne d’un droit international, celui-là même qu’ils appelaient de leurs voeux quand l’Europe célébrait encore les lois de la Machtpolitik.
Les Européens prétendent souvent que les Américains ne sont pas raisonnables quand ils exigent une sécurité « parfaite », celle que leur a apportée pendant des siècles la barrière protectrice de deux océans. Les Européens assurent qu’ils savent, eux, vivre avec le danger et côtoyer le mal, car telle est leur histoire depuis toujours. D’où leur plus grande tolérance face aux menaces que peuvent représenter l’Irak de Saddam Hussein ou l’Iran des ayatollahs. Selon eux, les Américains exagèrent le danger que ces régimes représenteraient. Même avant le 11 septembre, l’argument sonnait assez creux. Dans les premières décennies de leur existence, les Etats-Unis ont connu l’insécurité, entourés qu’ils étaient par des puissances européennes hostiles, et constamment menacés de voir l’Union éclater sous le choc de forces centrifuges encouragées de l’extérieur : l’état d’insécurité de la nation est au coeur du discours d’adieu de George Washington. Quant à la prétendue tolérance européenne face à l’insécurité et au mal, on ne saurait la surestimer. Longtemps, l’Europe catholique et l’Europe protestante ont préféré s’entretuer que se tolérer, et les deux derniers siècles n’ont pas été marqués par une grande tolérance mutuelle entre Français et Allemands. (…) Une fois encore, on expliquera beaucoup mieux par la relative faiblesse de l’Europe sa plus grande tolérance de la menace extérieure. Et cette tolérance est une politique très réaliste, car l’Europe, en raison de sa faiblesse, est moins exposée aux menaces que la très puissante Amérique. (…) C’est cette réaction psychologique parfaitement normale qui est en train de brouiller les Etats-Unis et l’Europe. Cette dernière a conclu, assez raisonnablement, que la menace incarnée par Saddam Hussein est plus tolérable pour elle que le risque de renverser son régime par la force. En revanche, dans le cas de l’Amérique, parce qu’elle est plus forte, le seuil de tolérance face à Saddam et à son dangereux arsenal est, non moins raisonnablement, plus bas, surtout après le 11 septembre. (…) Les Américains peuvent envisager une invasion réussie de l’Irak qui renverserait Saddam Hussein, ce qui explique que 70 % d’entre eux soient apparemment favorables à une telle entreprise. On ne sera pas surpris d’apprendre que les Européens trouvent un tel projet à la fois inimaginable et effrayant.
L’incapacité à répondre aux menaces ne débouche pas seulement sur la tolérance mais parfois aussi sur la dénégation : il est normal de tenter de chasser de son esprit ce contre quoi l’on ne peut rien faire. Selon un bon observateur de l’opinion européenne, c’est sur l’idée même de menace que s’opposent souvent les gouvernements de part et d’autre de l’Atlantique : Washington, nous dit Steven Everts, parle de « menaces » étrangères telles que la prolifération d’armements nucléaires, le terrorisme et les « Etats voyous » ; mais les dirigeants Européens voient surtout des « problèmes », tels que les conflits interethniques, les mouvements migratoires, le crime organisé, la pauvreté et la dégradation de l’environnement. Comme le fait remarquer Everts, la différence fondamentale tient pourtant moins à une question de culture et de philosophie que de capacité à agir. (…) Néanmoins, ces divergences dans la perception de la menace ne relèvent pas seulement de la psychologie. Elles sont également fonction d’une réalité pratique qui, elle aussi, est une conséquence de la disparité des forces : il est incontestable, objectivement, que l’Irak et les autres « Etats voyous » ne représentent pas le même niveau de menace pour l’Europe et pour l’Amérique. Pour commencer, il faut prendre en compte le fait que les Américains garantissent la sécurité de l’Europe depuis soixante ans, et qu’ils ont pris pour eux le fardeau de maintenir l’ordre dans ces régions éloignées du monde, de la Corée au golfe Persique, dont les puissances européennes se sont en grande partie retirées. Les Européens considèrent le plus souvent, qu’ils l’admettent clairement ou non, que si l’Irak devait soudain devenir une menace réelle, et non plus seulement potentielle, les Etats-Unis interviendraient, comme ils l’ont fait en 1991. (…) Quand on regarde les choses au niveau le plus pragmatique, c’est- à-dire quand il s’agit de planifier véritablement une stratégie, ni l’Irak, ni la Corée du Nord, ni aucun autre « Etat voyou » n’est avant tout un problème pour l’Europe. La tâche de contenir Saddam Hussein revient avant tout aux Etats-Unis, et non à l’Europe : tout le monde est d’accord sur ce point, y compris Saddam Hussein lui-même. (…)
Ces cinquante dernières années, l’Europe a adopté un point de vue authentiquement nouveau sur le rôle de la puissance dans les relations internationales, et cela en raison de la spécificité de son histoire depuis la fin de la seconde guerre mondiale. C’est un point de vue que les Américains ne partagent pas, et ne sauraient partager, car leur histoire, de l’autre côté de l’Atlantique, n’a pas été la même.
Revenons sur ce qui constitue aujourd’hui la culture stratégique de l’Europe : l’accent mis sur la négociation, la diplomatie et les liens commerciaux, la préférence donnée au droit international sur l’usage de la force, à la séduction sur la coercition, au multilatéralisme sur l’unilatéralisme. Chacun sait que, pendant des siècles, telle n’a pas été l’approche des relations internationales que l’Europe favorisait : il s’agit d’un produit de son histoire la plus récente. La culture stratégique de l’Europe d’aujourd’hui représente, de sa part, un rejet délibéré du passé européen, un refus de poursuivre dans la voie funeste de la Machtpolitik. Elle reflète un désir ardent et compréhensible d’en finir à jamais avec le passé. (…)
Comme l’a souligné le ministre allemand des affaires étrangères, Joschka Fischer, dans un discours sur sa vision de l’avenir de l’Europe prononcé à l’université Humboldt de Berlin le 12 mai 2000 : « Au coeur du concept d’Europe depuis 1945 il y avait, et il y aura toujours, le rejet du système né des traités de Westphalie en 1648, avec son principe d’équilibre des puissances et ses ambitions hégémoniques des grands Etats. » (…)
Fischer se situe tout près de l’une des extrémités du spectre de l’idéalisme européen. Mais la question ne relève pas du clivage gauche-droite. La principale affirmation de Fischer, à savoir que l’Europe a dépassé l’ancienne Machtpolitik et découvert un nouveau système pour maintenir la paix entre les nations, est largement partagée dans l’opinion européenne. Un diplomate britannique de haut rang, Robert Cooper, écrivait il y a peu que l’Europe actuelle vit dans un « système postmoderne », qui ne repose plus sur l’équilibre des puissances mais sur le « rejet de la force » et sur des « règles de comportement que chacun s’impose à soi-même ». Dans le « monde postmoderne, poursuit-il, la raison d’Etat et l’amoralisme des théories de Machiavel sur l’art de gouverner (…) ont été remplacés par la conscience morale » en matière de politique internationale.
Les tenants du réalisme en Amérique ne manqueront pas de railler un tel idéalisme. (…) [Mais] à l’intérieur des frontières de l’Europe les lois séculaires régissant les rapports entre les nations ont été abolies. Les Européens sont passés du monde anarchique décrit par Hobbes à celui souhaité par Kant, où règne la paix perpétuelle. (…)
L’Europe « a un rôle à jouer dans la gouvernance mondiale », dit Romano Prodi [président de la Commission européenne], celui de répliquer l’expérience européenne à l’échelle de la planète. (…) [Cette] transmission du miracle européen au reste du monde est devenue la « nouvelle mission civilisatrice » de l’Europe. De même que les Américains ont toujours été convaincus qu’ils avaient découvert la formule du bonheur sur terre et souhaitent l’exporter dans le reste du monde, les Européens se sont donné une nouvelle mission, née de leur découverte de la paix perpétuelle.
Nous en arrivons ainsi à ce qui est probablement la cause la plus importante des divergences entre l’Europe et les Etats-Unis. La puissance de l’Amérique, et sa détermination à l’utiliser, unilatéralement si nécessaire, constituent une menace (et peut-être la plus grande de toutes) pour la nouvelle mission que l’Europe s’est fixée. Les milieux dirigeants de Washington ne parviennent pas à croire que leurs homologues européens soient davantage soucieux des incidences d’une intervention américaine en Irak (unilatérale et sans légalité internationale) qu’ils ne le sont du comportement de l’Irak et de l’inquiétant arsenal que détient Saddam Hussein. S’ils redoutent qu’une telle intervention ne déstabilise le Moyen-Orient et n’entraîne la perte de nombreuses vies humaines, leur préoccupation la plus profonde est néanmoins ailleurs : une telle entreprise, de la part des Américains, serait une attaque contre l’essence même de l’Europe « postmoderne », un rejet de ses idéaux, un déni de leur validité universelle. (…)
Comme les Américains l’ont fait pendant deux siècles, les Européens expriment très haut leur conviction d’avoir une vision du monde supérieure, une méthode plus sage pour traiter les problèmes internationaux, et un modèle de solution des conflits qu’ils sont prêts à offrir à tous. (…)
Ce n’est peut-être pas une simple coïncidence si les étonnants progrès dans l’unification accomplis ces dernières années n’ont pas eu pour corollaire un retour de l’Europe au statut de superpuissance, mais, au contraire, une diminution de ses capacités militaires par rapport à celles des Etats-Unis. Même si, parmi les objectifs assignés à la création de l’Union européenne, il y avait celui de constituer une superpuissance capable de faire jeu égal avec l’Amérique (…) force est de constater que [cette] ambition a désormais quelque chose d’anachronique. C’est une pulsion venue du passé, qui contredit les idéaux de l’Europe postmoderne, dont l’existence même dépend du rejet de la Machtpolitik. (…) L’Union européenne a beau périodiquement tâter du doigt les eaux troubles du Moyen-Orient ou de la péninsule coréenne, force est de constater que sa politique étrangère est probablement le fruit le plus rachitique de l’unification. (…) C’est pourquoi ses interventions s’exposent si aisément à des rebuffades. (…)
La situation est riche en ironies. Le rejet par l’Europe de la Machtpolitik, son hostilité à l’usage des armes en politique internationale, dépendent de la présence de troupes américaines sur son sol. Le nouvel ordre kantien dont elle jouit ne pouvait fleurir que sous le parapluie protecteur de la puissance américaine exercée selon les règles du vieil ordre hobbésien. (…) Les dirigeants américains sont convaincus que la sécurité mondiale et l’ordre libéral, tout comme le paradis « postmoderne » qu’est l’Europe, ne sauraient survivre longtemps si l’Amérique n’utilisait pas sa puissance dans ce monde dangereux, hobbésien, qui est toujours la règle hors d’Europe.
Ainsi, bien que les Etats-Unis aient eu naguère le rôle décisif dans l’accès de l’Europe au paradis kantien, et le jouent toujours pour en assurer la survie, ils ne sauraient eux-mêmes entrer dans cet éden. Ils en gardent la muraille, mais ne peuvent en franchir la porte. Les Etats-Unis, en dépit de leur puissance considérable, demeurent englués dans l’histoire, contraints d’affronter les Saddam Hussein, les ayatollahs, les Kim Jong-iI et les Jiang Zemin, laissant à d’autres la chance d’en toucher les dividendes.
Une telle situation est-elle tolérable pour les Etats-Unis ? A bien des égards, elle l’est (…). Apparemment, les Américains ne manifestent aucune aigreur à l’idée qu’il leur est impossible d’entrer dans la bienheureuse Utopia moderne. (…) Alors qu’une petite fraction des élites aspire toujours à une « gouvernance mondiale » et rejette l’usage de la force, nombre d’Américains de différents bords (…) ont toujours Munich en tête. Quant aux jeunes générations qui n’ont connu ni Munich ni Pearl Harbor, elles ont désormais le 11 septembre 2001. Au lendemain de la tragédie, même des partisans déclarés de la « gouvernance mondiale » réclamaient du sang.
Les Américains sont des idéalistes, mais ils n’ont jamais su promouvoir leurs idéaux sans l’aide de leur puissance. (…) En bons disciples des Lumières, les Américains croient encore en la perfectibilité de l’homme, et conservent l’espoir que le monde le soit aussi. Mais ils ne manquent pas pour autant d’un certain réalisme : ils croient que la puissance est toujours indispensable dans un monde encore très éloigné de la perfection. (…) Gary Cooper défendra la bourgade, que les habitants le souhaitent ou non. (…)
Rares sont les Européens qui reconnaissent (…) que ce comportement de l’Amérique peut être à l’avantage du monde civilisé, que la puissance américaine, même utilisée selon un double système de critères, est le meilleur instrument du progrès humain, et peut-être le seul. Au contraire, bien des Européens d’aujourd’hui en sont venus à voir dans les Etats-Unis un hors-la-loi, un colosse voyou. Les Européens se plaignent de l’unilatéralisme de George Bush, mais ils sont en train de comprendre que le problème ne tient pas à la personnalité d’un président : le problème est systémique, et il est sans solution. (…)
Que faire ? La réponse, évidente, est que l’Europe devrait (…) accroître ses capacités militaires, même si ce n’est que marginalement. Mais il n’y a guère à espérer de ce côté-là. Enfin, qui sait… [Du côté des Etats-Unis], plutôt que de se voir comme un Gulliver ligoté par des Liliputiens, les dirigeants américains devraient comprendre que l’Europe n’est pas réellement en mesure de les entraver. (…) Ils pourraient [alors] commencer par montrer plus de compréhension pour ce que pensent les autres, et un peu de générosité d’esprit. Ils pourraient manifester davantage de respect pour le multilatéralisme et le recours au droit international, et chercher à accumuler un certain capital politique de coopération avec d’autres Etats. (…)
Ce ne sont là que de petits pas, ils ne sauraient remédier pleinement à la dégradation actuelle des relations entre les deux rives de l’Atlantique. Mais (…) est-ce faire preuve d’un optimisme trop naïf que de croire qu’un peu de compréhension mutuelle pourrait améliorer les choses ?
Come the Revisionists
Self-flattering, self-deluded–almost desperate
Victor Davis Hanson
National Review Online
April 24, 2005
Will the second Bush administration be less bellicose, more multilateral? That’s what some of the president’s critics are suggesting, after his much-publicized visit to Europe. Joseph S. Nye, author of Soft Power, thought he saw in Bush a new convert who had belatedly, but wisely, forsaken flawed concepts such as unilateralism and preemption and adopted instead the tenets of Nye’s own volume. “The most striking thing at this point in Bush’s second term,” Nye recently intoned, “is his belated discovery of the importance of diplomacy and soft power.”
Clinton NSC veteran Nancy Soderberg recently expressed worry that Bush’s policies — often the opposite of those of the Clinton administration and thus antithetical also to the precepts of Soderberg’s just-released but ill-timed The Superpower Myth — well, might just work. “It’s scary for Democrats,” she stammered on Jon Stewart’s Daily Show, “I have to say. . . . Well, there’s still Iran and North Korea, don’t forget. There’s still hope for the rest of us. . . . There’s always hope that this might not work.” But later, when asked by Bill O’Reilly to explain her curious remarks, she echoed this strange new theme that Bush was finally getting it right: “I think there’s a second-term conversion going on with the Bush administration. I’d like to think it’s because they read my book. I think it has more to do with the fact that reality has seeped in. They’re starting to talk well of the French.”
At first glance, this is all counterintuitive. Almost immediately after the inauguration, President Bush made a number of appointments that reflected confidence in the course of his prior four years. John Bolton, the hawk on North Korea, was named ambassador to the U.N. This was not a gesture calculated to show that a contrite United States was now seeking accommodation with the U.N. hierarchy; Bolton is expected, rather, to deploy his tough talk and iron spine to shake up a corrupt institution reeling from scandals. Nor was Paul Wolfowitz relegated to the World Bank as punishment for his neo-Wilsonian stance in the Middle East: He was elevated to the institution’s presidency precisely to inject that same sort of democratic idealism into determining the extension or withdrawal of international loans.
Similarly, Condoleezza Rice is no ambivalent Colin Powell type; she is a powerful spokesman for the president’s own views that place democracy and idealism in the forefront of U.S. foreign policy. She has already expressed disagreement with the Europeans’ desire to sell arms to Communist China; canceled a meeting with Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, to remind him to release dissidents and hold multiparty elections; skipped a visit to Canada, on news that the government there had backed out of the U.S.-led missile-defense project; and recalled the U.S. ambassador from Damascus, in displeasure at Syria’s occupation of Lebanon. The U.N., EU, NATO, and the Democratic leadership played little role in the flurry of her first few weeks in her new post.
Indeed, rather than following the multilateral approach called for by John Kerry in the recent campaign, Secretary Rice seemed to be seeking strong new bilateral ties with India, Taiwan, and Japan. They all appreciate American idealism and power, and the willingness of the U.S. to open its economy, and to warn a newly aggressive China to tread carefully around the region’s democracies.
Given this reality, what is behind the new revisionist notion that the second, softer Bush administration is a corrective to the harder first? The most obvious explanation is simply the angst of those out of power. Liberals and Democrats now write “should have done it my way” books in lieu of wielding real influence. They witness the world now operating according to principles that leave them privately aghast. What do they make of the president’s controversial isolation of Arafat — now that it has, indirectly, led to immediate West Bank elections upon Arafat’s death? What explains the conversion of Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who cut his teeth damning the U.S. but now confesses, “It’s strange for me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq. I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, eight million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world”? After the democratic agitation sweeping the Middle East, following the successful elections in Afghanistan and Iraq, even the most ardent Bush-haters might admit that the static world of Oslo, U.N. embargos, and no-fly zones had more in it of appeasement than of principle. The now-famous New York Times editorial of March 1 pointed out that “the Bush administration is entitled to claim a healthy share of the credit for many of these advances.”
American idealism, backed with force and conviction — not soft power, multilateralism, Europeans, or the U.N. — ended the rule of the Taliban, and of Saddam Hussein. The often-lonely vision of George W. Bush ushered in elected governments in their places, and inspired the disenfranchised elsewhere to begin agitating for change. Those in Lebanon know that it was an American president, not Kofi Annan or Gerhard Schroeder, who both shares their aspirations and is willing to stand up to their oppressors.
Among the critics of the first George W. Bush administration — and especially among the architects of the feeble U.S. response to terrorism in the 1990s — the present reality must be either denied or spun. The former is impossible when Arab radicals themselves credit Bush with being a catalyst for reform. That leaves the latter alternative of spin as the only recourse: Bush erred by going alone and is now changing to our point of view and thus basking in the world’s appreciation.
The second reason we are witnessing these false claims of a new direction in foreign policy is simply the changing tides of war, and the facts on the ground in the Middle East. The turn to offense after 9/11, the removal of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein, coupled with reconstruction and preparation for the establishment of democracy, occupied almost all of the attention of the Bush-administration years between 9/11 and the second inauguration.
But now, both tyrannies are gone. Counter-democratic forces are waning, and the governments of Afghanistan and Iraq are gaining strength. While hyper-critics talked of “taking our eye off bin Laden,” and listened to the pessimism of Richard Clarke, Michael (“Anonymous”) Scheuer, or Joe Wilson, the U.S. military, unheralded, was systematically routing al-Qaeda from Afghanistan, retaking Fallujah, and killing thousands of insurgents in Iraq. Those unsung American heroes empowered U.S. diplomats with new leverage against enemies (such as Syria and Iran) and erstwhile friends (such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt). If insurrectionists in Iraq once emboldened reproachful Europeans, successful voting there has now embarrassed them.
So there have been ripples from such American resolve that remind us that force need not be perpetually applied, once the credibility of one’s willingness to resort to it has been unambiguously reestablished. In short, George W. Bush can play good cop/bad cop with the Europeans in Iran, invite multilateral parties to adjudicate the crisis in North Korea, and work with France in Lebanon, because no one doubts that the alternative could well be worse: American unilateral action to disarm rogue nuclear states or stop Syria’s promotion of terrorist enclaves in neighboring countries.
That very lack of credibility was the tragedy of Bill Clinton’s foreign policy of warmed-over Carterism, under which we waited nearly a decade to remove Milosevic, withdrew in defeat from Somalia, gave up a chance to have bin Laden extradited — and treated terrorism as essentially a criminal-justice matter, with military actions amounting to a few cruise missiles and stern-sounding press conferences. Perhaps Europeans, Arab dictators, Yasser Arafat, and Kofi Annan all liked Bill Clinton far more than they do George W. Bush — but whether they respected, feared, or trusted him more is another matter altogether.
We went through a similar cycle of easily lost and then laboriously restored deterrence with the successive administrations of Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan — when after the Communist expansion in Afghanistan and Central America, genocide in Cambodia, and hostage-taking in Iran, the U.S., under a demonized but intrepid president, recovered to unravel the Soviet Union.
This characteristic liberal laxity was chided by Leslie Gelb, no fan of George W. Bush, in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed. Gelb’s lecture to liberals — who, he wrote, “portray the rest of the world as just a bunch of misunderstood bunny-rabbits” — began with, “The Democrats need a Dick Cheney, especially on foreign policy.” Gelb remonstrated that “Cheney sees the dark side of the world, a reality that largely eludes Democrats but not most Americans. He understands power and knows how to wield it, as opposed to the soft-power prose of intellectual Democrats.”
The “soft power” advisers to John Kerry in the last election and the craftsmen of Democratic foreign policy now play a similar role to the administration that Europe enjoys with the U.S. itself. Like the Europeans, the soft-power advocates can talk all they want about nice-guy diplomacy and the need for multilateral institutions, but they will have to realize that their approach enjoys such validity as it does only because the Bush administration has done the hard part: braving the melee when corpses piled up and thugs were on the rampage.
Sadly, too many leftists still don’t have a clue what brought this all about. Consequently, they are peddling this bizarre notion that what led us into the mess culminating in 9/11 is what will now save us. One would think that they had been comatose the last three years, if they had not been so vocal in opposing what actually worked.
Anybody can appear kinder and gentler when the bad guys have been taken out and high noon has passed. Only then can the cowering townsfolk pour back onto Main Street to slap the sheriff on the back, applauding that his smoking gun is now safely and properly holstered — and all those nasty outlaw corpses are conveniently out of sight at the undertaker’s.
Brace yourself: They are all coming out right now.
Power and Weakness
June 2, 2002
It is time to stop pretending that Europeans and Americans share a common view of the world, or even that they occupy the same world. On the all-important question of power – the efficacy of power, the morality of power, the desirability of power – American and European perspectives are diverging. Europe is turning away from power, or to put it a little differently, it is moving beyond power into a self-contained world of laws and rules and transnational negotiation and cooperation. It is entering a post-historical paradise of peace and relative prosperity, the realization of Kant’s « Perpetual Peace. » The United States, meanwhile, remains mired in history, exercising power in the anarchic Hobbesian world where international laws and rules are unreliable and where true security and the defense and promotion of a liberal order still depend on the possession and use of military might. That is why on major strategic and international questions today, Americans are from Mars and Europeans are from Venus: They agree on little and understand one another less and less. And this state of affairs is not transitory – the product of one American election or one catastrophic event. The reasons for the transatlantic divide are deep, long in development, and likely to endure. When it comes to setting national priorities, determining threats, defining challenges, and fashioning and implementing foreign and defense policies, the United States and Europe have parted ways.
It is easier to see the contrast as an American living in Europe. Europeans are more conscious of the growing differences, perhaps because they fear them more. European intellectuals are nearly unanimous in the conviction that Americans and Europeans no longer share a common « strategic culture. » The European caricature at its most extreme depicts an America dominated by a « culture of death, » its warlike temperament the natural product of a violent society where every man has a gun and the death penalty reigns. But even those who do not make this crude link agree there are profound differences in the way the United States and Europe conduct foreign policy.
The United States, they argue, resorts to force more quickly and, compared with Europe, is less patient with diplomacy. Americans generally see the world divided between good and evil, between friends and enemies, while Europeans see a more complex picture. When confronting real or potential adversaries, Americans generally favor policies of coercion rather than persuasion, emphasizing punitive sanctions over inducements to better behavior, the stick over the carrot. Americans tend to seek finality in international affairs: They want problems solved, threats eliminated. And, of course, Americans increasingly tend toward unilateralism in international affairs. They are less inclined to act through international institutions such as the United Nations, less inclined to work cooperatively with other nations to pursue common goals, more skeptical about international law, and more willing to operate outside its strictures when they deem it necessary, or even merely useful.1
Europeans insist they approach problems with greater nuance and sophistication. They try to influence others through subtlety and indirection. They are more tolerant of failure, more patient when solutions don’t come quickly. They generally favor peaceful responses to problems, preferring negotiation, diplomacy, and persuasion to coercion. They are quicker to appeal to international law, international conventions, and international opinion to adjudicate disputes. They try to use commercial and economic ties to bind nations together. They often emphasize process over result, believing that ultimately process can become substance.
This European dual portrait is a caricature, of course, with its share of exaggerations and oversimplifications. One cannot generalize about Europeans: Britons may have a more « American » view of power than many of their fellow Europeans on the continent. And there are differing perspectives within nations on both sides of the Atlantic. In the U.S., Democrats often seem more « European » than Republicans; Secretary of State Colin Powell may appear more « European » than Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. Many Americans, especially among the intellectual elite, are as uncomfortable with the « hard » quality of American foreign policy as any European; and some Europeans value power as much as any American.
Nevertheless, the caricatures do capture an essential truth: The United States and Europe are fundamentally different today. Powell and Rumsfeld have more in common than do Powell and Hubert Védrine or even Jack Straw. When it comes to the use of force, mainstream American Democrats have more in common with Republicans than they do with most European Socialists and Social Democrats. During the 1990s even American liberals were more willing to resort to force and were more Manichean in their perception of the world than most of their European counterparts. The Clinton administration bombed Iraq, as well as Afghanistan and Sudan. European governments, it is safe to say, would not have done so. Whether they would have bombed even Belgrade in 1999, had the U.S. not forced their hand, is an interesting question.2
What is the source of these differing strategic perspectives? The question has received too little attention in recent years, either because foreign policy intellectuals and policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic have denied the existence of a genuine difference or because those who have pointed to the difference, especially in Europe, have been more interested in assailing the United States than in understanding why the United States acts as it does -or, for that matter, why Europe acts as it does. It is past time to move beyond the denial and the insults and to face the problem head-on.
Despite what many Europeans and some Americans believe, these differences in strategic culture do not spring naturally from the national characters of Americans and Europeans. After all, what Europeans now consider their more peaceful strategic culture is, historically speaking, quite new. It represents an evolution away from the very different strategic culture that dominated Europe for hundreds of years and at least until World War I. The European governments – and peoples – who enthusiastically launched themselves into that continental war believed in machtpolitik. While the roots of the present European worldview, like the roots of the European Union itself, can be traced back to the Enlightenment, Europe’s great-power politics for the past 300 years did not follow the visionary designs of the philosophes and the physiocrats.
As for the United States, there is nothing timeless about the present heavy reliance on force as a tool of international relations, nor about the tilt toward unilateralism and away from a devotion to international law. Americans are children of the Enlightenment, too, and in the early years of the republic were more faithful apostles of its creed. America’s eighteenth- and early nineteenth-century statesmen sounded much like the European statesmen of today, extolling the virtues of commerce as the soothing balm of international strife and appealing to international law and international opinion over brute force. The young United States wielded power against weaker peoples on the North American continent, but when it came to dealing with the European giants, it claimed to abjure power and assailed as atavistic the power politics of the eighteenth- and nineteenth-century European empires.
Two centuries later, Americans and Europeans have traded places – and perspectives. Partly this is because in those 200 years, but especially in recent decades, the power equation has shifted dramatically: When the United States was weak, it practiced the strategies of indirection, the strategies of weakness; now that the United States is powerful, it behaves as powerful nations do. When the European great powers were strong, they believed in strength and martial glory. Now, they see the world through the eyes of weaker powers. These very different points of view, weak versus strong, have naturally produced differing strategic judgments, differing assessments of threats and of the proper means of addressing threats, and even differing calculations of interest.
But this is only part of the answer. For along with these natural consequences of the transatlantic power gap, there has also opened a broad ideological gap. Europe, because of its unique historical experience of the past half-century – culminating in the past decade with the creation of the European Union – has developed a set of ideals and principles regarding the utility and morality of power different from the ideals and principles of Americans, who have not shared that experience. If the strategic chasm between the United States and Europe appears greater than ever today, and grows still wider at a worrying pace, it is because these material and ideological differences reinforce one another. The divisive trend they together produce may be impossible to reverse.
The power gap: perception and reality
Europe has been militarily weak for a long time, but until fairly recently its weakness had been obscured. World War II all but destroyed European nations as global powers, and their postwar inability to project sufficient force overseas to maintain colonial empires in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East forced them to retreat on a massive scale after more than five centuries of imperial dominance – perhaps the most significant retrenchment of global influence in human history. For a half-century after World War II, however, this weakness was masked by the unique geopolitical circumstances of the Cold War. Dwarfed by the two superpowers on its flanks, a weakened Europe nevertheless served as the central strategic theater of the worldwide struggle between communism and democratic capitalism. Its sole but vital strategic mission was to defend its own territory against any Soviet offensive, at least until the Americans arrived. Although shorn of most traditional measures of great-power status, Europe remained the geopolitical pivot, and this, along with lingering habits of world leadership, allowed Europeans to retain international influence well beyond what their sheer military capabilities might have afforded.
Europe lost this strategic centrality after the Cold War ended, but it took a few more years for the lingering mirage of European global power to fade. During the 1990s, war in the Balkans kept both Europeans and Americans focused on the strategic importance of the continent and on the continuing relevance of nato. The enlargement of nato to include former Warsaw Pact nations and the consolidation of the Cold War victory kept Europe in the forefront of the strategic discussion.
Then there was the early promise of the « new Europe. » By bonding together into a single political and economic unit – the historic accomplishment of the Maastricht treaty in 1992 – many hoped to recapture Europe’s old greatness but in a new political form. « Europe » would be the next superpower, not only economically and politically, but also militarily. It would handle crises on the European continent, such as the ethnic conflicts in the Balkans, and it would re-emerge as a global player. In the 1990s Europeans could confidently assert that the power of a unified Europe would restore, finally, the global « multipolarity » that had been destroyed by the Cold War and its aftermath. And most Americans, with mixed emotions, agreed that superpower Europe was the future. Harvard University’s Samuel P. Huntington predicted that the coalescing of the European Union would be « the single most important move » in a worldwide reaction against American hegemony and would produce a « truly multipolar » twenty-first century.3
But European pretensions and American apprehensions proved unfounded. The 1990s witnessed not the rise of a European superpower but the decline of Europe into relative weakness. The Balkan conflict at the beginning of the decade revealed European military incapacity and political disarray; the Kosovo conflict at decade’s end exposed a transatlantic gap in military technology and the ability to wage modern warfare that would only widen in subsequent years. Outside of Europe, the disparity by the close of the 1990s was even more starkly apparent as it became clear that the ability of European powers, individually or collectively, to project decisive force into regions of conflict beyond the continent was negligible. Europeans could provide peacekeeping forces in the Balkans – indeed, they could and eventually did provide the vast bulk of those forces in Bosnia and Kosovo. But they lacked the wherewithal to introduce and sustain a fighting force in potentially hostile territory, even in Europe. Under the best of circumstances, the European role was limited to filling out peacekeeping forces after the United States had, largely on its own, carried out the decisive phases of a military mission and stabilized the situation. As some Europeans put it, the real division of labor consisted of the United States « making the dinner » and the Europeans « doing the dishes. »
This inadequacy should have come as no surprise, since these were the limitations that had forced Europe to retract its global influence in the first place. Those Americans and Europeans who proposed that Europe expand its strategic role beyond the continent set an unreasonable goal. During the Cold War, Europe’s strategic role had been to defend itself. It was unrealistic to expect a return to international great-power status, unless European peoples were willing to shift significant resources from social programs to military programs.
Clearly they were not. Not only were Europeans unwilling to pay to project force beyond Europe. After the Cold War, they would not pay for sufficient force to conduct even minor military actions on the continent without American help. Nor did it seem to matter whether European publics were being asked to spend money to strengthen nato or an independent European foreign and defense policy. Their answer was the same. Rather than viewing the collapse of the Soviet Union as an opportunity to flex global muscles, Europeans took it as an opportunity to cash in on a sizable peace dividend. Average European defense budgets gradually fell below 2 percent of gdp. Despite talk of establishing Europe as a global superpower, therefore, European military capabilities steadily fell behind those of the United States throughout the 1990s.
The end of the Cold War had a very different effect on the other side of the Atlantic. For although Americans looked for a peace dividend, too, and defense budgets declined or remained flat during most of the 1990s, defense spending still remained above 3 percent of gdp. Fast on the heels of the Soviet empire’s demise came Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and the largest American military action in a quarter-century. Thereafter American administrations cut the Cold War force, but not as dramatically as might have been expected. By historical standards, America’s military power and particularly its ability to project that power to all corners of the globe remained unprecedented.
Meanwhile, the very fact of the Soviet empire’s collapse vastly increased America’s strength relative to the rest of the world. The sizable American military arsenal, once barely sufficient to balance Soviet power, was now deployed in a world without a single formidable adversary. This « unipolar moment » had an entirely natural and predictable consequence: It made the United States more willing to use force abroad. With the check of Soviet power removed, the United States was free to intervene practically wherever and whenever it chose – a fact reflected in the proliferation of overseas military interventions that began during the first Bush administration with the invasion of Panama in 1989, the Persian Gulf War in 1991, and the humanitarian intervention in Somalia in 1992, continuing during the Clinton years with interventions in Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo. While American politicians talked of pulling back from the world, the reality was an America intervening abroad more frequently than it had throughout most of the Cold War. Thanks to new technologies, the United States was also freer to use force around the world in more limited ways through air and missile strikes, which it did with increasing frequency.
How could this growing transatlantic power gap fail to create a difference in strategic perceptions? Even during the Cold War, American military predominance and Europe’s relative weakness had produced important and sometimes serious disagreements. Gaullism, Ostpolitik, and the various movements for European independence and unity were manifestations not only of a European desire for honor and freedom of action. They also reflected a European conviction that America’s approach to the Cold War was too confrontational, too militaristic, and too dangerous. Europeans believed they knew better how to deal with the Soviets: through engagement and seduction, through commercial and political ties, through patience and forbearance. It was a legitimate view, shared by many Americans. But it also reflected Europe’s weakness relative to the United States, the fewer military options at Europe’s disposal, and its greater vulnerability to a powerful Soviet Union. It may have reflected, too, Europe’s memory of continental war. Americans, when they were not themselves engaged in the subtleties of détente, viewed the European approach as a form of appeasement, a return to the fearful mentality of the 1930s. But appeasement is never a dirty word to those whose genuine weakness offers few appealing alternatives. For them, it is a policy of sophistication.
The end of the Cold War, by widening the power gap, exacerbated the disagreements. Although transatlantic tensions are now widely assumed to have begun with the inauguration of George W. Bush in January 2001, they were already evident during the Clinton administration and may even be traced back to the administration of George H.W. Bush. By 1992, mutual recriminations were rife over Bosnia, where the United States refused to act and Europe could not act. It was during the Clinton years that Europeans began complaining about being lectured by the « hectoring hegemon. » This was also the period in which Védrine coined the term hyperpuissance to describe an American behemoth too worryingly powerful to be designated merely a superpower. (Perhaps he was responding to then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright’s insistence that the United States was the world’s « indispensable nation. ») It was also during the 1990s that the transatlantic disagreement over American plans for missile defense emerged and many Europeans began grumbling about the American propensity to choose force and punishment over diplomacy and persuasion.
The Clinton administration, meanwhile, though relatively timid and restrained itself, grew angry and impatient with European timidity, especially the unwillingness to confront Saddam Hussein. The split in the alliance over Iraq didn’t begin with the 2000 election but in 1997, when the Clinton administration tried to increase the pressure on Baghdad and found itself at odds with France and (to a lesser extent) Great Britain in the United Nations Security Council. Even the war in Kosovo was marked by nervousness among some allies – especially Italy, Greece, and Germany – that the United States was too uncompromisingly militaristic in its approach. And while Europeans and Americans ultimately stood together in the confrontation with Belgrade, the Kosovo war produced in Europe less satisfaction at the successful prosecution of the war than unease at America’s apparent omnipotence. That apprehension would only increase in the wake of American military action after September 11, 2001.
The psychology of power and weakness
Today’s transatlantic problem, in short, is not a George Bush problem. It is a power problem. American military strength has produced a propensity to use that strength. Europe’s military weakness has produced a perfectly understandable aversion to the exercise of military power. Indeed, it has produced a powerful European interest in inhabiting a world where strength doesn’t matter, where international law and international institutions predominate, where unilateral action by powerful nations is forbidden, where all nations regardless of their strength have equal rights and are equally protected by commonly agreed-upon international rules of behavior. Europeans have a deep interest in devaluing and eventually eradicating the brutal laws of an anarchic, Hobbesian world where power is the ultimate determinant of national security and success.
This is no reproach. It is what weaker powers have wanted from time immemorial. It was what Americans wanted in the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, when the brutality of a European system of power politics run by the global giants of France, Britain, and Russia left Americans constantly vulnerable to imperial thrashing. It was what the other small powers of Europe wanted in those years, too, only to be sneered at by Bourbon kings and other powerful monarchs, who spoke instead of raison d’état. The great proponent of international law on the high seas in the eighteenth century was the United States; the great opponent was Britain’s navy, the « Mistress of the Seas. » In an anarchic world, small powers always fear they will be victims. Great powers, on the other hand, often fear rules that may constrain them more than they fear the anarchy in which their power brings security and prosperity.
This natural and historic disagreement between the stronger and the weaker manifests itself in today’s transatlantic dispute over the question of unilateralism. Europeans generally believe their objection to American unilateralism is proof of their greater commitment to certain ideals concerning world order. They are less willing to acknowledge that their hostility to unilateralism is also self-interested. Europeans fear American unilateralism. They fear it perpetuates a Hobbesian world in which they may become increasingly vulnerable. The United States may be a relatively benign hegemon, but insofar as its actions delay the arrival of a world order more conducive to the safety of weaker powers, it is objectively dangerous.
This is one reason why in recent years a principal objective of European foreign policy has become, as one European observer puts it, the « multilateralising » of the United States.4 It is not that Europeans are teaming up against the American hegemon, as Huntington and many realist theorists would have it, by creating a countervailing power. After all, Europeans are not increasing their power. Their tactics, like their goal, are the tactics of the weak. They hope to constrain American power without wielding power themselves. In what may be the ultimate feat of subtlety and indirection, they want to control the behemoth by appealing to its conscience.
It is a sound strategy, as far as it goes. The United States is a behemoth with a conscience. It is not Louis xiv’s France or George iii’s England. Americans do not argue, even to themselves, that their actions may be justified by raison d’état. Americans have never accepted the principles of Europe’s old order, never embraced the Machiavellian perspective. The United States is a liberal, progressive society through and through, and to the extent that Americans believe in power, they believe it must be a means of advancing the principles of a liberal civilization and a liberal world order. Americans even share Europe’s aspirations for a more orderly world system based not on power but on rules – after all, they were striving for such a world when Europeans were still extolling the laws of machtpolitik.
But while these common ideals and aspirations shape foreign policies on both sides of the Atlantic, they cannot completely negate the very different perspectives from which Europeans and Americans view the world and the role of power in international affairs. Europeans oppose unilateralism in part because they have no capacity for unilateralism. Polls consistently show that Americans support multilateral action in principle – they even support acting under the rubric of the United Nations – but the fact remains that the United States can act unilaterally, and has done so many times with reasonable success. For Europeans, the appeal to multilateralism and international law has a real practical payoff and little cost. For Americans, who stand to lose at least some freedom of action, support for universal rules of behavior really is a matter of idealism.
Even when Americans and Europeans can agree on the kind of world order they would strive to build, however, they increasingly disagree about what constitutes a threat to that international endeavor. Indeed, Europeans and Americans differ most these days in their evaluation of what constitutes a tolerable versus an intolerable threat. This, too, is consistent with the disparity of power.
Europeans often argue that Americans have an unreasonable demand for « perfect » security, the product of living for centuries shielded behind two oceans.5 Europeans claim they know what it is like to live with danger, to exist side-by-side with evil, since they’ve done it for centuries. Hence their greater tolerance for such threats as may be posed by Saddam Hussein’s Iraq or the ayatollahs’ Iran. Americans, they claim, make far too much of the dangers these regimes pose.
Even before September 11, this argument rang a bit hollow. The United States in its formative decades lived in a state of substantial insecurity, surrounded by hostile European empires, at constant risk of being torn apart by centrifugal forces that were encouraged by threats from without: National insecurity formed the core of Washington’s Farewell Address. As for the Europeans’ supposed tolerance for insecurity and evil, it can be overstated. For the better part of three centuries, European Catholics and Protestants more often preferred to kill than to tolerate each other; nor have the past two centuries shown all that much mutual tolerance between Frenchmen and Germans.
Some Europeans argue that precisely because Europe has suffered so much, it has a higher tolerance for suffering than America and therefore a higher tolerance for threats. More likely the opposite is true. The memory of their horrendous suffering in World War I made the British and French publics more fearful of Nazi Germany, not more tolerant, and this attitude contributed significantly to the appeasement of the 1930s.
A better explanation of Europe’s greater tolerance for threats is, once again, Europe’s relative weakness. Tolerance is also very much a realistic response in that Europe, precisely because it is weak, actually faces fewer threats than the far more powerful United States.
The psychology of weakness is easy enough to understand. A man armed only with a knife may decide that a bear prowling the forest is a tolerable danger, inasmuch as the alternative – hunting the bear armed only with a knife – is actually riskier than lying low and hoping the bear never attacks. The same man armed with a rifle, however, will likely make a different calculation of what constitutes a tolerable risk. Why should he risk being mauled to death if he doesn’t need to?
This perfectly normal human psychology is helping to drive a wedge between the United States and Europe today. Europeans have concluded, reasonably enough, that the threat posed by Saddam Hussein is more tolerable for them than the risk of removing him. But Americans, being stronger, have reasonably enough developed a lower threshold of tolerance for Saddam and his weapons of mass destruction, especially after September 11. Europeans like to say that Americans are obsessed with fixing problems, but it is generally true that those with a greater capacity to fix problems are more likely to try to fix them than those who have no such capability. Americans can imagine successfully invading Iraq and toppling Saddam, and therefore more than 70 percent of Americans apparently favor such action. Europeans, not surprisingly, find the prospect both unimaginable and frightening.
The incapacity to respond to threats leads not only to tolerance but sometimes to denial. It’s normal to try to put out of one’s mind that which one can do nothing about. According to one student of European opinion, even the very focus on « threats » differentiates American policymakers from their European counterparts. Americans, writes Steven Everts, talk about foreign « threats » such as « the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, and ‘rogue states.' » But Europeans look at « challenges, » such as « ethnic conflict, migration, organized crime, poverty and environmental degradation. » As Everts notes, however, the key difference is less a matter of culture and philosophy than of capability. Europeans « are most worried about issues . . . that have a greater chance of being solved by political engagement and huge sums of money. » In other words, Europeans focus on issues – « challenges » – where European strengths come into play but not on those « threats » where European weakness makes solutions elusive. If Europe’s strategic culture today places less value on power and military strength and more value on such soft-power tools as economics and trade, isn’t it partly because Europe is militarily weak and economically strong? Americans are quicker to acknowledge the existence of threats, even to perceive them where others may not see any, because they can conceive of doing something to meet those threats.
The differing threat perceptions in the United States and Europe are not just matters of psychology, however. They are also grounded in a practical reality that is another product of the disparity of power. For Iraq and other « rogue » states objectively do not pose the same level of threat to Europeans as they do to the United States. There is, first of all, the American security guarantee that Europeans enjoy and have enjoyed for six decades, ever since the United States took upon itself the burden of maintaining order in far-flung regions of the world – from the Korean Peninsula to the Persian Gulf – from which European power had largely withdrawn. Europeans generally believe, whether or not they admit it to themselves, that were Iraq ever to emerge as a real and present danger, as opposed to merely a potential danger, then the United States would do something about it – as it did in 1991. If during the Cold War Europe by necessity made a major contribution to its own defense, today Europeans enjoy an unparalleled measure of « free security » because most of the likely threats are in regions outside Europe, where only the United States can project effective force. In a very practical sense – that is, when it comes to actual strategic planning – neither Iraq nor Iran nor North Korea nor any other « rogue » state in the world is primarily a European problem. Nor, certainly, is China. Both Europeans and Americans agree that these are primarily American problems.
This is why Saddam Hussein is not as great a threat to Europe as he is to the United States. He would be a greater threat to the United States even were the Americans and Europeans in complete agreement on Iraq policy, because it is the logical consequence of the transatlantic disparity of power. The task of containing Saddam Hussein belongs primarily to the United States, not to Europe, and everyone agrees on this6 – including Saddam, which is why he considers the United States, not Europe, his principal adversary. In the Persian Gulf, in the Middle East, and in most other regions of the world (including Europe), the United States plays the role of ultimate enforcer. « You are so powerful, » Europeans often say to Americans. « So why do you feel so threatened? » But it is precisely America’s great power that makes it the primary target, and often the only target. Europeans are understandably content that it should remain so.
Americans are « cowboys, » Europeans love to say. And there is truth in this. The United States does act as an international sheriff, self-appointed perhaps but widely welcomed nevertheless, trying to enforce some peace and justice in what Americans see as a lawless world where outlaws need to be deterred or destroyed, and often through the muzzle of a gun. Europe, by this old West analogy, is more like a saloonkeeper. Outlaws shoot sheriffs, not saloonkeepers. In fact, from the saloonkeeper’s point of view, the sheriff trying to impose order by force can sometimes be more threatening than the outlaws who, at least for the time being, may just want a drink.
When Europeans took to the streets by the millions after September 11, most Americans believed it was out of a sense of shared danger and common interest: The Europeans knew they could be next. But Europeans by and large did not feel that way and still don’t. Europeans do not really believe they are next. They may be secondary targets – because they are allied with the U.S. – but they are not the primary target, because they no longer play the imperial role in the Middle East that might have engendered the same antagonism against them as is aimed at the United States. When Europeans wept and waved American flags after September 11, it was out of genuine human sympathy, sorrow, and affection for Americans. For better or for worse, European displays of solidarity were a product more of fellow-feeling than self-interest.
The origins of modern European foreign policy
Important as the power gap may be in shaping the respective strategic cultures of the United States and Europe, it is only one part of the story. Europe in the past half-century has developed a genuinely different perspective on the role of power in international relations, a perspective that springs directly from its unique historical experience since the end of World War II. It is a perspective that Americans do not share and cannot share, inasmuch as the formative historical experiences on their side of the Atlantic have not been the same.
Consider again the qualities that make up the European strategic culture: the emphasis on negotiation, diplomacy, and commercial ties, on international law over the use of force, on seduction over coercion, on multilateralism over unilateralism. It is true that these are not traditionally European approaches to international relations when viewed from a long historical perspective. But they are a product of more recent European history. The modern European strategic culture represents a conscious rejection of the European past, a rejection of the evils of European machtpolitik. It is a reflection of Europeans’ ardent and understandable desire never to return to that past. Who knows better than Europeans the dangers that arise from unbridled power politics, from an excessive reliance on military force, from policies produced by national egoism and ambition, even from balance of power and raison d’état? As German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer put it in a speech outlining his vision of the European future at Humboldt University in Berlin (May 12, 2000), « The core of the concept of Europe after 1945 was and still is a rejection of the European balance-of-power principle and the hegemonic ambitions of individual states that had emerged following the Peace of Westphalia in 1648. » The European Union is itself the product of an awful century of European warfare.
Of course, it was the « hegemonic ambitions » of one nation in particular that European integration was meant to contain. And it is the integration and taming of Germany that is the great accomplishment of Europe – viewed historically, perhaps the greatest feat of international politics ever achieved. Some Europeans recall, as Fischer does, the central role played by the United States in solving the « German problem. » Fewer like to recall that the military destruction of Nazi Germany was the prerequisite for the European peace that followed. Most Europeans believe that it was the transformation of European politics, the deliberate abandonment and rejection of centuries of machtpolitik, that in the end made possible the « new order. » The Europeans, who invented power politics, turned themselves into born-again idealists by an act of will, leaving behind them what Fischer called « the old system of balance with its continued national orientation, constraints of coalition, traditional interest-led politics and the permanent danger of nationalist ideologies and confrontations. »
Fischer stands near one end of the spectrum of European idealism. But this is not really a right-left issue in Europe. Fischer’s principal contention – that Europe has moved beyond the old system of power politics and discovered a new system for preserving peace in international relations – is widely shared across Europe. As senior British diplomat Robert Cooper recently wrote in the Observer (April 7, 2002), Europe today lives in a « postmodern system » that does not rest on a balance of power but on « the rejection of force » and on « self-enforced rules of behavior. » In the « postmodern world, » writes Cooper, « raison d’état and the amorality of Machiavelli’s theories of statecraft . . . have been replaced by a moral consciousness » in international affairs.
American realists might scoff at this idealism. George F. Kennan assumed only his naïve fellow Americans succumbed to such « Wilsonian » legalistic and moralistic fancies, not those war-tested, historically minded European Machiavels. But, really, why shouldn’t Europeans be idealistic about international affairs, at least as they are conducted in Europe’s « postmodern system »? Within the confines of Europe, the age-old laws of international relations have been repealed. Europeans have stepped out of the Hobbesian world of anarchy into the Kantian world of perpetual peace. European life during the more than five decades since the end of World War II has been shaped not by the brutal laws of power politics but by the unfolding of a geopolitical fantasy, a miracle of world-historical importance: The German lion has laid down with the French lamb. The conflict that ravaged Europe ever since the violent birth of Germany in the nineteenth century has been put to rest.
The means by which this miracle has been achieved have understandably acquired something of a sacred mystique for Europeans, especially since the end of the Cold War. Diplomacy, negotiations, patience, the forging of economic ties, political engagement, the use of inducements rather than sanctions, the taking of small steps and tempering ambitions for success – these were the tools of Franco-German rapprochement and hence the tools that made European integration possible. Integration was not to be based on military deterrence or the balance of power. Quite the contrary. The miracle came from the rejection of military power and of its utility as an instrument of international affairs – at least within the confines of Europe. During the Cold War, few Europeans doubted the need for military power to deter the Soviet Union. But within Europe the rules were different.
Collective security was provided from without, meanwhile, by the deus ex machina of the United States operating through the military structures of nato. Within this wall of security, Europeans pursued their new order, freed from the brutal laws and even the mentality of power politics. This evolution from the old to the new began in Europe during the Cold War. But the end of the Cold War, by removing even the external danger of the Soviet Union, allowed Europe’s new order, and its new idealism, to blossom fully. Freed from the requirements of any military deterrence, internal or external, Europeans became still more confident that their way of settling international problems now had universal application.
« The genius of the founding fathers, » European Commission President Romano Prodi commented in a speech at the Institute d’Etudes Politiques in Paris (May 29, 2001), « lay in translating extremely high political ambitions . . . into a series of more specific, almost technical decisions. This indirect approach made further action possible. Rapprochement took place gradually. From confrontation we moved to willingness to cooperate in the economic sphere and then on to integration. » This is what many Europeans believe they have to offer the world: not power, but the transcendence of power. The « essence » of the European Union, writes Everts, is « all about subjecting inter-state relations to the rule of law, » and Europe’s experience of successful multilateral governance has in turn produced an ambition to convert the world. Europe « has a role to play in world ‘governance,' » says Prodi, a role based on replicating the European experience on a global scale. In Europe « the rule of law has replaced the crude interplay of power . . . power politics have lost their influence. » And by « making a success of integration we are demonstrating to the world that it is possible to create a method for peace. »
No doubt there are Britons, Germans, French, and others who would frown on such exuberant idealism. But many Europeans, including many in positions of power, routinely apply Europe’s experience to the rest of the world. For is not the general European critique of the American approach to « rogue » regimes based on this special European insight? Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Libya – these states may be dangerous and unpleasant, even evil. But might not an « indirect approach » work again, as it did in Europe? Might it not be possible once more to move from confrontation to rapprochement, beginning with cooperation in the economic sphere and then moving on to peaceful integration? Could not the formula that worked in Europe work again with Iran or even Iraq? A great many Europeans insist that it can.
The transmission of the European miracle to the rest of the world has become Europe’s new mission civilatrice. Just as Americans have always believed that they had discovered the secret to human happiness and wished to export it to the rest of the world, so the Europeans have a new mission born of their own discovery of perpetual peace.
Thus we arrive at what may be the most important reason for the divergence in views between Europe and the United States. America’s power, and its willingness to exercise that power – unilaterally if necessary – represents a threat to Europe’s new sense of mission. Perhaps the greatest threat. American policymakers find it hard to believe, but leading officials and politicians in Europe worry more about how the United States might handle or mishandle the problem of Iraq – by undertaking unilateral and extralegal military action – than they worry about Iraq itself and Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction. And while it is true that they fear such action might destabilize the Middle East and lead to the unnecessary loss of life, there is a deeper concern.7 Such American action represents an assault on the essence of « postmodern » Europe. It is an assault on Europe’s new ideals, a denial of their universal validity, much as the monarchies of eighteenth- and nineteenth-century Europe were an assault on American republican ideals. Americans ought to be the first to understand that a threat to one’s beliefs can be as frightening as a threat to one’s physical security.
As Americans have for two centuries, Europeans speak with great confidence of the superiority of their global understanding, the wisdom they have to offer other nations about conflict resolution, and their way of addressing international problems. But just as in the first decade of the American republic, there is a hint of insecurity in the European claim to « success, » an evident need to have their success affirmed and their views accepted by other nations, particularly by the mighty United States. After all, to deny the validity of the new European idealism is to raise profound doubts about the viability of the European project. If international problems cannot, in fact, be settled the European way, wouldn’t that suggest that Europe itself may eventually fall short of a solution, with all the horrors this implies?
And, of course, it is precisely this fear that still hangs over Europeans, even as Europe moves forward. Europeans, and particularly the French and Germans, are not entirely sure that the problem once known as the « German problem » really has been solved. As their various and often very different proposals for the future constitution of Europe suggest, the French are still not confident they can trust the Germans, and the Germans are still not sure they can trust themselves. This fear can at times hinder progress toward deeper integration, but it also propels the European project forward despite innumerable obstacles. The European project must succeed, for how else to overcome what Fischer, in his Humboldt University speech, called « the risks and temptations objectively inherent in Germany’s dimensions and central situation »? Those historic German « temptations » play at the back of many a European mind. And every time Europe contemplates the use of military force, or is forced to do so by the United States, there is no avoiding at least momentary consideration of what effect such a military action might have on the « German question. »
Perhaps it is not just coincidence that the amazing progress toward European integration in recent years has been accompanied not by the emergence of a European superpower but, on the contrary, by a diminishing of European military capabilities relative to the United States. Turning Europe into a global superpower capable of balancing the power of the United States may have been one of the original selling points of the European Union – an independent European foreign and defense policy was supposed to be one of the most important byproducts of European integration. But, in truth, the ambition for European « power » is something of an anachronism. It is an atavistic impulse, inconsistent with the ideals of postmodern Europe, whose very existence depends on the rejection of power politics. Whatever its architects may have intended, European integration has proved to be the enemy of European military power and, indeed, of an important European global role.
This phenomenon has manifested itself not only in flat or declining European defense budgets, but in other ways, too, even in the realm of « soft » power. European leaders talk of Europe’s essential role in the world. Prodi yearns « to make our voice heard, to make our actions count. » And it is true that Europeans spend a great deal of money on foreign aid – more per capita, they like to point out, than does the United States. Europeans engage in overseas military missions, so long as the missions are mostly limited to peacekeeping. But while the eu periodically dips its fingers into troubled international waters in the Middle East or the Korean Peninsula, the truth is that eu foreign policy is probably the most anemic of all the products of European integration. As Charles Grant, a sympathetic observer of the eu, recently noted, few European leaders « are giving it much time or energy. »8 eu foreign policy initiatives tend to be short-lived and are rarely backed by sustained agreement on the part of the various European powers. That is one reason they are so easily rebuffed, as was the case in late March when Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon blocked eu foreign policy chief Javier Solana from meeting with Yasser Arafat (only to turn around the next day and allow a much lower-ranking American negotiator to meet with the Palestinian leader).
It is obvious, moreover, that issues outside of Europe don’t attract nearly as much interest among Europeans as purely European issues do. This has surprised and frustrated Americans on all sides of the political and strategic debate: Recall the profound disappointment of American liberals when Europeans failed to mount an effective protest against Bush’s withdrawal from the abm treaty. But given the enormous and difficult agenda of integration, this European tendency to look inward is understandable. eu enlargement, the revision of the common economic and agricultural policies, the question of national sovereignty versus supranational governance, the so-called democracy deficit, the jostling of the large European powers, the dissatisfaction of the smaller powers, the establishment of a new European constitution – all of these present serious and unavoidable challenges. The difficulties of moving forward might seem insuperable were it not for the progress the project of European integration has already demonstrated.
American policies that are unwelcome on substance – on a missile defense system and the abm treaty, belligerence toward Iraq, support for Israel – are all the more unwelcome because for Europe, they are a distraction. Europeans often point to American insularity and parochialism. But Europeans themselves have turned intensely introspective. As Dominique Moisi noted in the Financial Times (March 11, 2002), the recent French presidential campaign saw « no reference . . . to the events of September 11 and their far-reaching consequences. » No one asked, « What should be the role of France and Europe in the new configuration of forces created after September 11? How should France reappraise its military budget and doctrine to take account of the need to maintain some kind of parity between Europe and the United States, or at least between France and the uk? » The Middle East conflict became an issue in the campaign because of France’s large Arab and Muslim population, as the high vote for Le Pen demonstrated. But Le Pen is not a foreign policy hawk. And as Moisi noted, « for most French voters in 2002, security has little to do with abstract and distant geopolitics. Rather, it is a question of which politician can best protect them from the crime and violence plaguing the streets and suburbs of their cities. »
Can Europe change course and assume a larger role on the world stage? There has been no shortage of European leaders urging it to do so. Nor is the weakness of eu foreign policy today necessarily proof that it must be weak tomorrow, given the eu’s record of overcoming weaknesses in other areas. And yet the political will to demand more power for Europe appears to be lacking, and for the very good reason that Europe does not see a mission for itself that requires power. Its mission is to oppose power. It is revealing that the argument most often advanced by Europeans for augmenting their military strength these days is not that it will allow Europe to expand its strategic purview. It is merely to rein in and « multilateralize » the United States. « America, » writes the pro-American British scholar Timothy Garton Ash in the New York Times (April 9, 2002), « has too much power for anyone’s good, including its own. » Therefore Europe must amass power, but for no other reason than to save the world and the United States from the dangers inherent in the present lopsided situation.
Whether that particular mission is a worthy one or not, it seems unlikely to rouse European passions. Even Védrine has stopped talking about counterbalancing the United States. Now he shrugs and declares there « is no reason for the Europeans to match a country that can fight four wars at once. » It was one thing for Europe in the 1990s to increase its collective expenditures on defense from $150 billion per year to $180 billion when the United States was spending $280 billion per year. But now the United States is heading toward spending as much as $500 billion per year, and Europe has not the slightest intention of keeping up. European analysts lament the continent’s « strategic irrelevance. » nato Secretary General George Robertson has taken to calling Europe a « military pygmy » in an effort to shame Europeans into spending more and doing so more wisely. But who honestly believes Europeans will fundamentally change their way of doing business? They have many reasons not to.
The U.S. response
In thinking about the divergence of their own views and Europeans’, Americans must not lose sight of the main point: The new Europe is indeed a blessed miracle and a reason for enormous celebration – on both sides of the Atlantic. For Europeans, it is the realization of a long and improbable dream: a continent free from nationalist strife and blood feuds, from military competition and arms races. War between the major European powers is almost unimaginable. After centuries of misery, not only for Europeans but also for those pulled into their conflicts – as Americans were twice in the past century – the new Europe really has emerged as a paradise. It is something to be cherished and guarded, not least by Americans, who have shed blood on Europe’s soil and would shed more should the new Europe ever fail.
Nor should we forget that the Europe of today is very much the product of American foreign policy stretching back over six decades. European integration was an American project, too, after World War II. And so, recall, was European weakness. When the Cold War dawned, Americans such as Dean Acheson hoped to create in Europe a powerful partner against the Soviet Union. But that was not the only American vision of Europe underlying U.S. policies during the twentieth century. Predating it was Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s vision of a Europe that had been rendered, in effect, strategically irrelevant. As the historian John Lamberton Harper has put it, he wanted « to bring about a radical reduction in the weight of Europe » and thereby make possible « the retirement of Europe from world politics. »9
Americans who came of age during the Cold War have always thought of Europe almost exclusively in Achesonian terms – as the essential bulwark of freedom in the struggle against Soviet tyranny. But Americans of Roosevelt’s era had a different view. In the late 1930s the common conviction of Americans was that « the European system was basically rotten, that war was endemic on that continent, and the Europeans had only themselves to blame for their plight. »10 By the early 1940s Europe appeared to be nothing more than the overheated incubator of world wars that cost America dearly. During World War II Americans like Roosevelt, looking backward rather than forward, believed no greater service could be performed than to take Europe out of the global strategic picture once and for all. « After Germany is disarmed, » fdr pointedly asked, « what is the reason for France having a big military establishment? » Charles DeGaulle found such questions « disquieting for Europe and for France. » Even though the United States pursued Acheson’s vision during the Cold War, there was always a part of American policy that reflected Roosevelt’s vision, too. Eisenhower undermining Britain and France at Suez was only the most blatant of many American efforts to cut Europe down to size and reduce its already weakened global influence.
But the more important American contribution to Europe’s current world-apart status stemmed not from anti-European but from pro-European impulses. It was a commitment to Europe, not hostility to Europe, that led the United States in the immediate postwar years to keep troops on the continent and to create nato. The presence of American forces as a security guarantee in Europe was, as it was intended to be, the critical ingredient to begin the process of European integration.
Europe’s evolution to its present state occurred under the mantle of the U.S. security guarantee and could not have occurred without it. Not only did the United States for almost half a century supply a shield against such external threats as the Soviet Union and such internal threats as may have been posed by ethnic conflict in places like the Balkans. More important, the United States was the key to the solution of the German problem and perhaps still is. Germany’s Fischer, in the Humboldt University speech, noted two « historic decisions » that made the new Europe possible: « the usa’s decision to stay in Europe » and « France’s and Germany’s commitment to the principle of integration, beginning with economic links. » But of course the latter could never have occurred without the former. France’s willingness to risk the reintegration of Germany into Europe – and France was, to say the least, highly dubious – depended on the promise of continued American involvement in Europe as a guarantee against any resurgence of German militarism. Nor were postwar Germans unaware that their own future in Europe depended on the calming presence of the American military.
The United States, in short, solved the Kantian paradox for the Europeans. Kant had argued that the only solution to the immoral horrors of the Hobbesian world was the creation of a world government. But he also feared that the « state of universal peace » made possible by world government would be an even greater threat to human freedom than the Hobbesian international order, inasmuch as such a government, with its monopoly of power, would become « the most horrible despotism. »11 How nations could achieve perpetual peace without destroying human freedom was a problem Kant could not solve. But for Europe the problem was solved by the United States. By providing security from outside, the United States has rendered it unnecessary for Europe’s supranational government to provide it. Europeans did not need power to achieve peace and they do not need power to preserve it.
The current situation abounds in ironies. Europe’s rejection of power politics, its devaluing of military force as a tool of international relations, have depended on the presence of American military forces on European soil. Europe’s new Kantian order could flourish only under the umbrella of American power exercised according to the rules of the old Hobbesian order. American power made it possible for Europeans to believe that power was no longer important. And now, in the final irony, the fact that United States military power has solved the European problem, especially the « German problem, » allows Europeans today to believe that American military power, and the « strategic culture » that has created and sustained it, are outmoded and dangerous.
Most Europeans do not see the great paradox: that their passage into post-history has depended on the United States not making the same passage. Because Europe has neither the will nor the ability to guard its own paradise and keep it from being overrun, spiritually as well as physically, by a world that has yet to accept the rule of « moral consciousness, » it has become dependent on America’s willingness to use its military might to deter or defeat those around the world who still believe in power politics.
Some Europeans do understand the conundrum. Some Britons, not surprisingly, understand it best. Thus Robert Cooper writes of the need to address the hard truth that although « within the postmodern world [i.e., the Europe of today], there are no security threats in the traditional sense, » nevertheless, throughout the rest of the world – what Cooper calls the « modern and pre-modern zones » – threats abound. If the postmodern world does not protect itself, it can be destroyed. But how does Europe protect itself without discarding the very ideals and principles that undergird its pacific system?
« The challenge to the postmodern world, » Cooper argues, « is to get used to the idea of double standards. » Among themselves, Europeans may « operate on the basis of laws and open cooperative security. » But when dealing with the world outside Europe, « we need to revert to the rougher methods of an earlier era – force, preemptive attack, deception, whatever is necessary. » This is Cooper’s principle for safeguarding society: « Among ourselves, we keep the law but when we are operating in the jungle, we must also use the laws of the jungle. »
Cooper’s argument is directed at Europe, and it is appropriately coupled with a call for Europeans to cease neglecting their defenses, « both physical and psychological. » But what Cooper really describes is not Europe’s future but America’s present. For it is the United States that has had the difficult task of navigating between these two worlds, trying to abide by, defend, and further the laws of advanced civilized society while simultaneously employing military force against those who refuse to abide by those rules. The United States is already operating according to Cooper’s double standard, and for the very reasons he suggests. American leaders, too, believe that global security and a liberal order – as well as Europe’s « postmodern » paradise – cannot long survive unless the United States does use its power in the dangerous, Hobbesian world that still flourishes outside Europe.
What this means is that although the United States has played the critical role in bringing Europe into this Kantian paradise, and still plays a key role in making that paradise possible, it cannot enter this paradise itself. It mans the walls but cannot walk through the gate. The United States, with all its vast power, remains stuck in history, left to deal with the Saddams and the ayatollahs, the Kim Jong Ils and the Jiang Zemins, leaving the happy benefits to others.
An acceptable division?
Is this situation tolerable for the United States? In many ways, it is. Contrary to what many believe, the United States can shoulder the burden of maintaining global security without much help from Europe. The United States spends a little over 3 percent of its gdp on defense today. Were Americans to increase that to 4 percent – meaning a defense budget in excess of $500 billion per year – it would still represent a smaller percentage of national wealth than Americans spent on defense throughout most of the past half-century. Even Paul Kennedy, who invented the term « imperial overstretch » in the late 1980s (when the United States was spending around 7 percent of its gdp on defense), believes the United States can sustain its current military spending levels and its current global dominance far into the future. Can the United States handle the rest of the world without much help from Europe? The answer is that it already does. The United States has maintained strategic stability in Asia with no help from Europe. In the Gulf War, European help was token; so it has been more recently in Afghanistan, where Europeans are once again « doing the dishes »; and so it would be in an invasion of Iraq to unseat Saddam. Europe has had little to offer the United States in strategic military terms since the end of the Cold War – except, of course, that most valuable of strategic assets, a Europe at peace.
The United States can manage, therefore, at least in material terms. Nor can one argue that the American people are unwilling to shoulder this global burden, since they have done so for a decade already. After September 11, they seem willing to continue doing so for a long time to come. Americans apparently feel no resentment at not being able to enter a « postmodern » utopia. There is no evidence most Americans desire to. Partly because they are so powerful, they take pride in their nation’s military power and their nation’s special role in the world.
Americans have no experience that would lead them to embrace fully the ideals and principles that now animate Europe. Indeed, Americans derive their understanding of the world from a very different set of experiences. In the first half of the twentieth century, Americans had a flirtation with a certain kind of internationalist idealism. Wilson’s « war to end all wars » was followed a decade later by an American secretary of state putting his signature to a treaty outlawing war. fdr in the 1930s put his faith in non-aggression pacts and asked merely that Hitler promise not to attack a list of countries Roosevelt presented to him. But then came Munich and Pearl Harbor, and then, after a fleeting moment of renewed idealism, the plunge into the Cold War. The « lesson of Munich » came to dominate American strategic thought, and although it was supplanted for a time by the « lesson of Vietnam, » today it remains the dominant paradigm. While a small segment of the American elite still yearns for « global governance » and eschews military force, Americans from Madeleine Albright to Donald Rumsfeld, from Brent Scowcroft to Anthony Lake, still remember Munich, figuratively if not literally. And for younger generations of Americans who do not remember Munich or Pearl Harbor, there is now September 11. After September 11, even many American globalizers demand blood.
Americans are idealists, but they have no experience of promoting ideals successfully without power. Certainly, they have no experience of successful supranational governance; little to make them place their faith in international law and international institutions, much as they might wish to; and even less to let them travel, with the Europeans, beyond power. Americans, as good children of the Enlightenment, still believe in the perfectibility of man, and they retain hope for the perfectibility of the world. But they remain realists in the limited sense that they still believe in the necessity of power in a world that remains far from perfection. Such law as there may be to regulate international behavior, they believe, exists because a power like the United States defends it by force of arms. In other words, just as Europeans claim, Americans can still sometimes see themselves in heroic terms – as Gary Cooper at high noon. They will defend the townspeople, whether the townspeople want them to or not.
The problem lies neither in American will or capability, then, but precisely in the inherent moral tension of the current international situation. As is so often the case in human affairs, the real question is one of intangibles – of fears, passions, and beliefs. The problem is that the United States must sometimes play by the rules of a Hobbesian world, even though in doing so it violates European norms. It must refuse to abide by certain international conventions that may constrain its ability to fight effectively in Robert Cooper’s jungle. It must support arms control, but not always for itself. It must live by a double standard. And it must sometimes act unilaterally, not out of a passion for unilateralism but, given a weak Europe that has moved beyond power, because the United States has no choice but to act unilaterally.
Few Europeans admit, as Cooper does implicitly, that such American behavior may redound to the greater benefit of the civilized world, that American power, even employed under a double standard, may be the best means of advancing human progress – and perhaps the only means. Instead, many Europeans today have come to consider the United States itself to be the outlaw, a rogue colossus. Europeans have complained about President Bush’s « unilateralism, » but they are coming to the deeper realization that the problem is not Bush or any American president. It is systemic. And it is incurable.
Given that the United States is unlikely to reduce its power and that Europe is unlikely to increase more than marginally its own power or the will to use what power it has, the future seems certain to be one of increased transatlantic tension. The danger – if it is a danger – is that the United States and Europe will become positively estranged. Europeans will become more shrill in their attacks on the United States. The United States will become less inclined to listen, or perhaps even to care. The day could come, if it has not already, when Americans will no more heed the pronouncements of the eu than they do the pronouncements of asean or the Andean Pact.
To those of us who came of age in the Cold War, the strategic decoupling of Europe and the United States seems frightening. DeGaulle, when confronted by fdr’s vision of a world where Europe was irrelevant, recoiled and suggested that this vision « risked endangering the Western world. » If Western Europe was to be considered a « secondary matter » by the United States, would not fdr only « weaken the very cause he meant to serve – that of civilization? » Western Europe, DeGaulle insisted, was « essential to the West. Nothing can replace the value, the power, the shining example of the ancient peoples. » Typically, DeGaulle insisted this was « true of France above all. » But leaving aside French amour propre, did not DeGaulle have a point? If Americans were to decide that Europe was no more than an irritating irrelevancy, would American society gradually become unmoored from what we now call the West? It is not a risk to be taken lightly, on either side of the Atlantic.
So what is to be done? The obvious answer is that Europe should follow the course that Cooper, Ash, Robertson, and others recommend and build up its military capabilities, even if only marginally. There is not much ground for hope that this will happen. But, then, who knows? Maybe concern about America’s overweening power really will create some energy in Europe. Perhaps the atavistic impulses that still swirl in the hearts of Germans, Britons, and Frenchmen – the memory of power, international influence, and national ambition – can still be played upon. Some Britons still remember empire; some Frenchmen still yearn for la gloire; some Germans still want their place in the sun. These urges are now mostly channeled into the grand European project, but they could find more traditional expression. Whether this is to be hoped for or feared is another question. It would be better still if Europeans could move beyond fear and anger at the rogue colossus and remember, again, the vital necessity of having a strong America – for the world and especially for Europe.
Americans can help. It is true that the Bush administration came into office with a chip on its shoulder. It was hostile to the new Europe – as to a lesser extent was the Clinton administration – seeing it not so much as an ally but as an albatross. Even after September 11, when the Europeans offered their very limited military capabilities in the fight in Afghanistan, the United States resisted, fearing that European cooperation was a ruse to tie America down. The Bush administration viewed nato’s historic decision to aid the United States under Article V less as a boon than as a booby trap. An opportunity to draw Europe into common battle out in the Hobbesian world, even in a minor role, was thereby unnecessarily lost.
Americans are powerful enough that they need not fear Europeans, even when bearing gifts. Rather than viewing the United States as a Gulliver tied down by Lilliputian threads, American leaders should realize that they are hardly constrained at all, that Europe is not really capable of constraining the United States. If the United States could move past the anxiety engendered by this inaccurate sense of constraint, it could begin to show more understanding for the sensibilities of others, a little generosity of spirit. It could pay its respects to multilateralism and the rule of law and try to build some international political capital for those moments when multilateralism is impossible and unilateral action unavoidable. It could, in short, take more care to show what the founders called a « decent respect for the opinion of mankind. »
These are small steps, and they will not address the deep problems that beset the transatlantic relationship today. But, after all, it is more than a cliché that the United States and Europe share a set of common Western beliefs. Their aspirations for humanity are much the same, even if their vast disparity of power has now put them in very different places. Perhaps it is not too naïvely optimistic to believe that a little common understanding could still go a long way.
1One representative French observer describes « a U.S. mindset » that « tends to emphasize military, technical and unilateral solutions to international problems, possibly at the expense of co-operative and political ones. » See Gilles Andreani, « The Disarray of U.S. Non-Proliferation Policy, » Survival (Winter 1999-2000).
2The case of Bosnia in the early 1990s stands out as an instance where some Europeans, chiefly British Prime Minister Tony Blair, were at times more forceful in advocating military action than first the Bush and then the Clinton administration. (Blair was also an early advocate of using air power and even ground troops in the Kosovo crisis.) And Europeans had forces on the ground in Bosnia when the United States did not, although in a un peacekeeping role that proved ineffective when challenged.
3Samuel P. Huntington, « The Lonely Superpower, » Foreign Affairs (March-April 1999).
4Steven Everts, « Unilateral America, Lightweight Europe?: Managing Divergence in Transatlantic Foreign Policy, » Centre for European Reform working paper (February 2001).
5For that matter, this is also the view commonly found in American textbooks.
6Notwithstanding the British contribution of patrols of the « no-fly zone. »
7The common American argument that European policy toward Iraq and Iran is dictated by financial considerations is only partly right. Are Europeans greedier than Americans? Do American corporations not influence American policy in Asia and Latin America, as well as in the Middle East? The difference is that American strategic judgments sometimes conflict with and override financial interests. For the reasons suggested in this essay, that conflict is much less common for Europeans.
8Charles Grant, « A European View of ESDP, » Centre for European Policy Studies working paper (April 2001).
9John Lamberton Harper, American Visions of Europe: Franklin D. Roosevelt, George F. Kennan, and Dean G. Acheson (Cambridge University Press, 1996), 3. The following discussion of the differing American perspectives on Europe owes much to Harper’s fine book.
10William L. Langer and S. Everett Gleason, The Challenge to Isolation, 1937-1940 (Harper Bros., 1952), 14.
11See Thomas L. Pangle and Peter J. Ahrensdorf, Justice Among Nations: On the Moral Basis of Power and Peace (University Press of Kansas, 1999), 200-201.